NFL Betting, Playoffs Week 1: Time for some more sleepless nights

NFL / Andy Richmond / 11 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

NFL betting guru Andy Richmond takes a look at the opening weekend of the playoffs...

The ultimate prize in the NFL, the Superbowl crown, continues to move nearer. This week we are in FA Cup terms at the quarter final stage and if last week was anything to go by these games should carry a health warning. We're in for more late nights this week and hopefully none of the mild heart attacks that I was having as the Steelers nearly overturned an 18 point deficit against the Jags.

Jags @ Patriots

The reward for the Jags is a trip to the a well rested and 16-0 Patriots and the last time the Jags travelled to Foxborough for a playoff game they were hammered 28-3, but this is a different set of Jags now - stronger and more respected. In fact they have become the trendy team to pick to beat the Patriots - backed up by their great running game, a very savvy if laid back head coach in Jack Del Rio and a QB who has shown great poise and leadership this season in Garrard.

BUT the defence is starting to run out of steam - hampered by injuries all season it was disconcerting to see the Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger completing passes at will during last weeks' comeback, with Tom Brady at the helm the Patriots could have a field day if that weakness manifests itself again. Having said all that the ageing Patriots defence could also have problems handling the Jags running game, their line backing core does tend to run down during the game and starts to allow ground yards and that could make the Jags harder to shake off than an amorous dog.

I think the Pats class will pull them through but those pesky Jags don't lie down easily and despite what is a very aggressive Pats offence, I'd have a small play that the Jags can keep it within 13 ½ points and continue their rise up the NFL pecking order.

Chargers @ Colts

If things go to plan in Foxborough then this will be the last game for the Colts at the RCA Dome, they move house next season. The Chargers roll into Indianapolis for a repeat of their Nov 11th regular season match up which was blighted by starters being unavailable and playing injured. I'm convinced we'll see a completely different game this time with a healthy Colts although the Chargers are hot right now and went 7-1 in the second half of the season. One of the main reasons for the confidence in the Colts is the return of WR Marvin Harrison and the likely loss of all pro tight end to a toe injury of Chargers TE Antonio Gates.

The Chargers were woefully slow out of the gates last week against the Titans - can they afford that sort of start against the Colts? No is the very short answer. QB Rivers has to provide far more snap to the offence this week along with star RB Tomlinson, and they are going to be met by a swarming and underrated Colts "D" led by a hard hitting Bob Sanders.

Manning has all his weapons available, a partisan home crowd and let's not forget the Colts are the defending Superbowl Champions - it all points to a Colts victory for me to set up another re-match with the Patriots a game that would grace the Superbowl itself.

Giants @ Cowboys

Divisional rivalry will be tested for the third time this season in the Cowboys Giants match up. The Cowboys won the first two rounds but that won't count for a thing if the Giants can supply the knockout blow here. We saw last week that the Giants having taken confidence from their narrow defeat by the Patriots, are a very solid team on the road which has a pass rush, running game and a resurgent and confident QB in Eli Manning.

Dallas come into this game for me with a few question marks. Don't get me wrong they are a fine team but down the stretch there were a few cracks and the possible absence of WR Terrell Owens would be a major blow.

There's always one game in the play offs where the home side looks vulnerable and the Cowboys to me are a cheap lay at around the 1.34 mark - with the way that this game will be played out I'm sure they will trade bigger at some point, it's up to you whether you get out for a green book or stay with it. Alternatively the Giants with 7 ½ points at around the 1.94 mark is not a bad investment - momentum is with the Giants and to win in the play offs you have to take the occasional chance and this is one I'm willing to take this week.

Seahawks @ Packers

Pressure of space makes these previews a bit like running a hurry up offence but the game I'll be watching with most interest this weekend will be the Packers Seahawks match up at Lambeau Field. The main headline here is the return of former Packers head coach Mike Holmgren to Green Bay - I'm with the Pack all the way although it will be a tight and tense game as two very similar offences go to work, the weather could be a factor here with snow predicted. The Packers just have greater balance for me and hopefully the icon that is Brett Favre will be one step nearer a fairytale end to his career with a visit to the Superbowl.

More late nights and health scares await this week - but you wouldn't have it any other way. Would you?