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NFL Betting - Part Two: Getting Stuck In

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NFL guru Chris Blackham talks us through the dos and don'ts once you start betting on the Gridiron

Once you've picked up the nuts and bolts of the game, you're ready for your first foray into betting. There are many markets on Betfair, so which one will you go for?

Outright Winner - Before New England's dominance of 2003-05 there were a few long-odds Super Bowl winners and given the nature of the NFL this is always likely to happen again. Unlike the Premier League, the NFL tries to ensure parity across all teams via the draft (where players join professional teams from the collegiate ranks) and a salary cap. Any team which makes good selections in the draft, brings in other decent players in the off-season and juggles the finances could well could find themselves in the Super Bowl at season's end. This means an outsider could well be good value to win, a situation which leads to decent trading opportunities as the season goes on.

The following points should be followed when selecting your team(s):
• Strength of the playing schedule. Unlike the Premier League, teams don't play every other side during the season. This creates different schedules and some can be easier than others.

• Draft pick-ups. The draft affords teams the opportunity to address weak areas by picking up players from the college system. It would be virtually impossible to know the strengths of all these new signings but there are plenty of websites which review how teams performed in the draft. There are also forums out there that discuss the merits of players that you are unfamiliar with; luckily for you there are plenty of people out there who know all about them. Go on these forums and find out about them. Doing the hard yards now leads to rewards later.

• Trades during the off-season and player retirements.

• Any coaching changes. A good coach can make all the difference. When Chelsea signed Jose Mourinho a few years back, their odds to win the Premiership and the Champions League came in significantly overnight as many believed they would become a far better side under him. They weren't wrong. Also look at the records of offensive and defensive coaches as they play a huge role.

Match-day Markets - There are loads of individual markets on each match, the most popular of which are match odds, handicap and total match points. But, as per any team game, the basics must be adhered to.

Team news, weather and ground conditions can all be very important. Last season, New Orleans star quarterback Michael Vick was ruled out of a key match against the New England Patriots, sending the prices of his team out in almost all markets. Cold, windy weather is likely to see lower scoring affairs compared to a calm, sunny day. Harsh conditions adversely affect the basic skills of the game like running with the ball, throwing and catching. This in turn means the chances of touchdowns are reduced. Building a spaceship to the moon where you can live without paying taxes is rocket science, appreciating how conditions can affect different NFL markets isn't.

The offensive tactics of each team need to be taken into account - how often they pass or run the ball and how effective the opposition's defence is against that kind of attack.

The phrase 'Any given Sunday' sums up how each team within the league can defeat any one of the 31 others. It was also a cracking film in which Al Pacino mastered the role of the washed-up, tired-of-life inspirational motivator who transforms Jamie Foxx from fourth-string quarterback to national superstar, but that's a discussion for another day.

Quick comebacks are common due to the point scoring system and the ability of a good defence to turn the ball over. One of the most remarkable turnarounds came from Chicago's game at Arizona in the 2006-07 season. The Bears were 20 points down at half-time and, despite their misfiring offence not managing a touchdown, their special teams and defence scored three times to beat the shocked Cardinals by one point (24-23). The Cardinals could still have landed the game but could not make a 40-yard field goal to win. It is not uncommon for NFL games to have a losing team matched at 1.01 at some point during the game as momentum can change so swiftly. The price graphs on each team often show massive swings during the game.

There are some important factors to consider before betting in-play...

• There are only two market runners in the NFL match odds market: Team A and Team B. This makes it very easy to trade in-running as you need only focus on the favourite's price. Key note: laying Team A is the same as backing Team B (i.e. Backing Team A at 1.5 is the same as laying Team B at 3).

• Know the scoring system. Six points for a touchdown plus an extra 1 point for a successful kick after or 2 points for successful conversion by touchdown; 3 points for a field goal; 2 points for a safety. The most important numbers are 3 and 7 points. This is why the odds from a team +2.5pts handicap and team +3.5pts handicap can look quite different.

• The strengths of the two teams and form. There are thousands of statistics available on the NFL ... some useful, some not so useful. It's a bit like listening to a "Beautiful South" album. For every run-of-the-mill ballad about the downside of relationships and the inside of pubs (like "Old Red Eyes is Back") there's an absolute cracker like "Let Love Speak Up Itself" by the boys from Hull. You just have to be patient.

• Team tactics. Some teams have good offence but poor defence and vice-versa. Teams will try to play to their strengths, you may find a good defensive team may play very conservative football and not do anything risky with the ball.

• Weather. Windy weather can have an affect on the game as passing would become hard and teams may run the ball more. This keeps the clock moving.

• Injuries. If a star quarterback goes down and his replacement is a rookie the odds will soon change dramatically. Imagine Jonny Wilkinson hobbling off at the crucial stage of a World Cup semi-final and being replaced by Olly Barkley: the difference in class is significant.

• Flags. Plays can be overturned by penalties and can affect the final result i.e. a touchdown can be overruled by a hold. Keep an eye out for them. They're worth flagging up.

• Field Position. This is a big factor to remember when betting in-play. Is a team in field goal range? Are they backed up in their own half? Are they next to the goal line of their opponent?

• Remember overtime is included in most markets.

• Rules differ between NFL and NCAAF (college football).

Now then: go out and buy yourself a bucket of fried chicken and a six-pack of Bud, stick your favourite NFL team's cap on, check your internet connection and log on to Betfair. Switch the game on, re-read this piece and get trading. If things don't turn out as you expected, resort to Al Pacino impressions to try and motivate the players of the team you've backed.

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