NFL Betting: Give thanks for a Thursday full of top action

NFL / Andy Richmond / 21 November 2007 / 1 Comments

Andy Richmond sees value in laying the top teams in Thanksgiving's televised games

An 11-hour football marathon hits our screens on Sky Sports on Thursday as Thanksgiving fever hits the US. So while across the pond massive amounts of turkey and trimmings are consumed, we can gatecrash the party by taking in an extra three games from Week 12 of the NFL season.

First up it's a trip to the Motor City - Detroit - where the 9-1 Packers come to town. Even to lifelong supporters of the Pack like myself, Green Bay have been one of the surprises of the season and come into this one looking to virtually seal the NFC North title and keep pace with the Cowboys in the race for the number one spot in the conference.

We saw Detroit on Sunday up against the Giants and I was disappointed with both teams, but of the two I did see something within the Lions that might just cause the Packers some problems. The Lions do have the potential to be explosive on offence and in wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams have two of the toughest assignments that a secondary can face - especially if quarterback Jon Kitna gets time to throw from the safety of the pocket. Balance is not the Lions forte on the offensive side of the ball, but I believe that they go away from their running game far too quickly. If he is healthy, running back Kevin Jones can keep the Packers honest rather than knowing a pass play is coming every down.

That comment could have been levelled at the Packers offence a few weeks ago but the emergence of rookie running back Ryan Grant has given Brett Favre options that have taken the pressure off the constant need to pass. Favre does have a dangerous amount of options n offence ranging from the deep threat of Greg Jennings through his "go-to" targets of the two Donalds - Lee and Driver. The Lions need to create pressure on Favre if they are to stay in this game, their pass defence is poor this year and that is an area they really need to step up in this game if they are to have a chance of winning.

Bear in mind that this game is unusual, both teams played on Sunday and have had very little time to prepare for this game - on paper the Packers look a far stronger and balanced outfit especially as their under-rated defence is starting to get the credit it deserves but 1.56 for the Packers away from home didn't hold much appeal and if you had to play in this market that 1.56 must hold some trading opportunity. Ultimately I think the Packers will win but this might not be the cake walk towards 10-1 and that showdown next week with the Cowboys that the oddsmakers expect. Of the specials on the game my eye was drawn to the touchdown scorer market where any price of odds against on Donald Lee should be snapped up - since being awarded his new contract is playing with confidence and appears to be one of Favre favourite targets when the end zone is in sight.

So it's a visit to Detroit for starters and if Thanksgiving was a three course affair then it would be Texas Stadium and the Cowboys and Jets match up for the main course. The Cowboys are the other front runners in the NFC and I'm sure they will be keeping a close eye on the previous game prior to their match up with the Jets. The Jets come in off the back of their surprise derailing of the Steelers last week and appear to be showing a glimmer of promise.

The Cowboys as we saw last week against the Redskins do have a lot of weapons on offence, coupled with powerful protection for rising star quarterback Romo which could mean a long day for the Jets.

But somehow I feel that the Cowboys coast a little at times and teams get closer than they should. Jets quarterback Kellen Clemens has a strong arm and some speedy receivers and this may be enough to keep the Jets closer than is suggested by the odds. For the brave among you there is not much downside to trading the 1.13 that the Cowboys currently are, a better option may be to take the Jets with a two touchdown start to run the team from the Lone Star state closer than the odds suggest.

Finally and very quickly onto the desert, the Colts and Falcons - a game that a few weeks ago would have looked a gimme for the Colts but their game has slipped recently amid a raft of injuries and it is the Falcons who come into the game with momentum. Similar to the previous game, this could prove closer than expected and trading on the Colts at around 1.2 is one of the options. They don't appear to be quite the team they were earlier in the season and with key personnel missing may prove a little vulnerable. I would have liked a couple of points more on the Falcons handicap start but 11.5 is enough and is a useful one at home for a team which have started to show some spark after a turbulent start to the season.

In summary, all the favourites look good enough to win but somehow I feel that the shortened week might give all three outsiders a chance and at odds-on we don't have to pay much to find out as a starting position. Remember football is a great trading sport and momentum swings happen quickly. Hopefully we'll be giving thanks for one upset or big swing on Thursday.

Comments (1)

1. Simon Bar | 21 November 2007

   Yeah Jets get a shock win over the Steelers! Mangenius is back...looking forward to Thanksgiving Day in Dallas now, although I can't see that being anything but ugly! Apart from the Miami game, which we simply have to win - the only other one could be against Herm's Chiefs! Clemens is goin to be running for his life - but he's a better scrambler than Pennington, but so am I.