NFL / Andy Richmond / 24 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Andy Richmond spells out the emerging post-season situation in the NFC, where the only the Giants will be twiddling their thumbs in week 17.

It's not quite as complicated in the NFC as the AFC but there are still issues to be settled and events that will undoubtedly have an effect on how the post-season shapes up.

Four of the six places up for grabs have gone already and five teams are vying for the two vacant spots.

We'll start with the ones we can't lose.

Unlike the AFC, where the top two are locked in, only one team is guaranteed to be top of the pile here, the Giants. The road to the Superbowl will go through the Big Apple, unlike last year when it was the Giants who did all the travelling on their way to the ultimate triumph.

The Giants have just carried on where they left off from last year, overcoming injuries and off the field incidents with a great team spirit, a pounding running game and a dominating defence - they never know when they are beaten and I wouldn't rule out them reappearing at "The Show" come February.

That moves us neatly onto the side vanquished by the Giants last week and what a potentially devastating loss it was for the Carolina Panthers who had a shot at the one spot but missed it. A loss to the Saints could push Carolina down to number five on the ladder - apart from divisional rivalry and the single season passing yards record for Drew Brees (he needs 405 yards) the Saints have little to play for, but I don't think that will stop them trying to trip up the Panthers here. The Panthers need to focus on this tricky game before they can start making their post-season plans and I have a nasty feeling that this trip to New Orleans may trip them up.

If that happens then another team in turmoil at the start of the season, the Atlanta Falcons, will rise from the number five spot to number two on the ladder, meaning a week off and homefield advantage in the play-offs. First things first though, they must beat one of the whipping boys of the NFL - the Rams.

If you thought Miami was a story of the weak made good, then Atlanta would equal if not better that, and you would have got huge odds about Atlanta having a winning season let alone winning the division back in September. But with rookie QB Matt Ryan playing like a veteran and RB Michael Turner running over everything in his path they have, under the direction of first season coach Mike Smith, been the surprise of the season to me. Atlanta, no matter where they finish, are going to be dangerous opponents in the post season.

The next port of call for us is the NFC North which looks destined for Minnesota by default. This is a two pronged battle between the Vikings and the Bears. Although they face the number one ranked Giants, the Viking may have got lucky in that NY are likely to rest some starters. Whatever happens to the Vikings, the last gasp Bears, hanging on thanks to two back-to-back overtime victories still have to win in Houston. Chicago's petrol gauge must be showing empty by now.

Almost locked into the number four slot are the Arizona Cardinals - the forgotten team in the play-offs, and to be honest, one of the weakest. The Cardinals qualified early, their foot has come off the pedal and they arrive with very little momentum or belief, I'm sure the wild cards won't be fearing a visit to the desert!

See, I told you this was easier than the AFC, stay with me as this is the only difficult section as we unravel the final spot.

Dallas are currently in, while Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Chicago all currently out. First to go will be the Bears, not certain to win in Houston which they need to do with help from others.

Tampa Bay are rocking at the moment but should overcome the Raiders at home and then it all rests on the result of the Eagles-Cowboys match up. If the Cowboys win, it's au revoir Tampa Bay. For Philadelphia, even more help is needed, with Eagles fans hoping for losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago, the latter I can see but the former I can't.

All of that means that we'll end up with this six pack for post season NFC action.

NFC Post Season Six Hits
1 -NY Giants - a repeat, don't rule it out, the same template is still working.
2 - Carolina - this would tee up a Meadowlands rematch - bring it on.
3 - Minnesota - need key players back to make an impact, three seed flatters.
4 - Arizona - there by default, stronger teams have missed out this year.
5 - Atlanta - from zeros to heros, nobody will want to play this dangerous bunch.
6 - Dallas - ego's aplenty but also talent, America's team can stay alive, just.