The Betfair Contrarian: Why the LA Lakers won't win the NBA Finals

Basketball / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betting on the Lakers to land the NBA? Think again, says the Betfair Contrarian

The LA Lakers have always fancied themselves as a cut above, with their celebrity hangers on, their golden costumes and their 28 NBA finals.

But they are also coming off a barren spell that has seen them barely bother to qualify for the post-season in recent years, let alone win anything, and also seem to have transformed themselves into a vast corporate support structure for Kobe Bryant's towering ego. To show his gratitude, Bryant seemed to be angling for a trade before the season started, but somehow the Laker management has built a team around him which he deems acceptable, helped no end by the Spaniard Pau Gasol. That team has been good enough to end the regular season with the best record in the Western Conference, and while other teams in the play-offs are showing signs of wilting, the Lakers feel like they are on a roll. For all their look-at-us swagger, however, The Contrarian doesn't believe they are going to win it this year, in spite of being a [2.82] favourite on Betfair. Here's why:

They look better than they are

One of the reasons the Lakers look good this year is because they've been so dreadful in the last five seasons, yet their record during the regular season (W57, L25) is only third best in the league and hardly outstanding. Only once in the last 12 years has a team from the Western Conference won the championship after losing 25 or more games in the regular season.

The percentage game

On five of the last six occasions that the Lakers have won the championship, their winning record over the regular season has been greater than 70%. This season they fell just short at 69.5%; close, but the last time they finished the regular season with a 69.5% winning record, in 1988-89, they lost the NBA Finals.

Kobe won the regular season MVP award - so what?

The Lakers have struggled since Shaquille O'Neal flounced in 2004, fed up at what he perceived as preferential treatment towards his teammate and rival in egomania, Bryant. This season Kobe has got his act together enough to win the regular season MVP award, which may not be the good omen it seems: the regular season MVP has failed to win the championship in each of the last four years, and has only won it once in the last seven.

They give up too many offensive rebounds

In the play-offs, when every possession counts, that can be a big problem. Lesser teams like the Nuggets or Jazz are not best equipped to turn those rebounds into points, but a team like the Hornets who the Lakers will probably have to overcome in the Conference final to progress, have the players (Chandler, West) to take full advantage of that weakness.

Defence wins championships...

...and the Lakers are absolutely NOT a top defensive team. They are weak against the 3-pointer and their interior defence is leaky. If they make the final, someone from the East will come out with a game plan of pure physical intimidation. Both the Celtics and Detroit can play killer defence when they want. The Lakers have lost both of their games against Boston this season, and 11 of their last 14 games against Detroit, including a crushing series defeat in the 2004 Finals.

LeBron is better than Kobe

If by some fluke neither the Celtics or the Pistons make the final, the next most likely candidate from the East is Cleveland, whose franchise player LeBron James has dominated Kobe in the few times they've met up this year, particularly on defence. If there is one guy in the league who can stop Kobe, Lebron has pretty much proven he is it.

They're overconfident

Successful teams need occasional reminders of what it is like to lose. None of the last six NBA Finals winners have gone undefeated in the final four games of the regular season, as the Lakers did this season. Similarly, in the last six years no team that has won their first round match 4-0 has gone on to win the championship.