Basketball / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 June 2009 / Leave a comment

The Magic are going deny the [1.4] Lakers and paint the NBA Finals blue. The Contrarian tell you why...

The Contrarian doesn't normally pay a whole lot of attention to the NBA its not exactly the home of the upset. This year, however, he thinks the Lakers are being overestimated [1.4] because of their history and their Kobe Bryant, and has a suspicion that the unfancied and unfashionable Orlando Magic might humble them. Despite excelling in the playoffs, the Florida franchise finds itself priced at [3.45] on Betfair to win the thing for the first time. Here's why the Contrarian thinks you should believe in Magic...

The Lakers have a bad finals record
This will be the LA Lakers' 30th NBA finals appearance, 10 more than any other franchise has managed. However, despite their unrivalled success at reaching the big event, they trail the Boston Celtics when it comes to actual wins as a result of having lost 15 of their previous 29. The Lakers are also enduring a lean spell having not won outright since 2001-2. During that period they've lost in the finals twice.

Losing finalists rarely bounce back
The Lakers were beaten 4-2 by the Boston Celtics last year and it is rare for a losing finalist to recover and triumph the following year. The last time it happened was 20 years ago when the Detroit Pistons thumped the Lakers - who had won 4-3 against them in 1988 - 4-0. There have only been two occasions in the last 50 years where a Western Champion has won a year after suffering defeat in the finals and it hasn't happened since 1985.

San Antonio Spurs have been carrying the West
The Western Conferences record in finals has been greatly enhanced by the San Antonio Spurs, who have been there four times in ten years and won on every occasion. If you take away those successes then the Western champions have won just four of the last 16 finals or, looking back over a wider period, just 16 of the last 50. Orlando lost their first final in 1995 but only one Eastern side in the last 50 years has lost its first two appearances on the big stage the New Jersey Nets compared to four from the West Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, LA Lakers and the San Francisco Warriors.

Orlando have beaten the Lakers twice this season
The Lakers boasted the superior regular season record of the two sides but in both of their meetings, Orlando came from behind to win 106-103 at home and 109-103 at the Staples Center. Eight of the last ten finals involving the Lakers have been won by the team who got the better of their regular season head-to-head encounters (using aggregate points when they have tied on wins).

And Jameer Nelson could return from injury
Jameer Nelson was the top-scorer for Orlando in both of their wins over the Lakers, scoring 55 points over the two games. The point guard looked certain to miss the finals having injured his shoulder in early February yet he is back in training. General Manager Otis Smith has played down talk of a return but may be playing mind-games. Even if he doesn't make it back, Orlando have already overcome Philadelphia, reigning champions Boston and LeBron James' Cleveland without him.

Home field advantage shouldnt prove too significant
The Lakers will play the first two and last two games of the series of seven at home as a result of their superior regular season record but that shouldn't affect things too much. Not only did Orlando win their last match at the Staples Center but the last time the Lakers held the advantage was in 2004 when they lost to Detroit. Kicking off at home also didn't boost Magic in their previous Finals appearance against Houston in 1995. The underdogs' two big wins to reach the finals against Boston and Cleveland also notably came when their opponents had the supposed series advantage.