NBA Betting: Why it pays to lay late

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 24 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Once they have secured their place in the play-offs, some coaches will be tempted to rest their big names. That makes it worth laying some of the NBA's leading lights over the coming weeks, says Nick Shiambouros.

This has been one of the most competitive seasons for a very long time. At the beginning of the year I thought that the teams in the West would have the harder task of making the play-offs but the East has turned out to be just as competitive.

In my opinion the few teams that have secured a place in the post-season will have a distinct advantage when the play-offs begin next month. Certain players will be rested and some very big names will have their minutes reduced. In other cases, players can miss a couple of games to rehabilitate an old injury. During this period late in the season it can pay to lay some of the bigger teams in the NBA at very skinny prices. The three teams that I will be laying over the next five games are the Boston Celtics, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic.

The effects of this grueling season have taken a physical toll on a lot of teams. Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics has only just returned to the rotation but his minutes are limited. As a result of this injury, Boston have lost valuable ground in their quest to catch Cleveland in the east but they have made the play-offs. This Celtics rotation will need all the rest it can get as they do not have a very deep bench. Coach Doc Rivers has shown visible signs of pressure as he tries to guide his team towards the post-season.

Los Angeles Lakers hold a 9.5 game advantage over Houston and have one eye firmly on the play-offs. The Lakers have the luxury of allowing certain players to play fewer minutes as the regular season comes to a close. Coach Phil Jackson is a master in the art of resting players and it is almost certain that his deep bench will be utilised as the season winds down. In truth the Lakers have such a strong bench they could almost field another team.

The Orlando Magic have had a fantastic season but will need all their strength to do battle with Cleveland and Boston in the play-offs. The big three of Howard, Turkoglu and Lewis have been playing huge minutes for the Magic and coach Stan Van Gundy will be keen to rest these players. The Magic have a brutal schedule over the next few games and will have to face play-off hopefuls Milwaukee and Miami before the end of the month.

Even teams that are not in the play-off picture appear to play with more intensity as some players and coaches are keen to advertise their skills to current and prospective clubs.
I would strongly advise checking for injuries and news at www.nba.com as some team decisions are left to the very last minute. Under normal circumstances I would not dream of laying the best teams in the league but if you look at the big picture there is money to be made with minimal risk.

Recommendations:

Lay the Los Angeles Lakers over the next five games in the outright market.
Lay the Boston Celtics over the next five games in the outright market.
Lay the Orlando Magic over the next five games in the outright market.

Please note this does not include the fixture between Orlando and Boston on the 25th March in which no wager is recommended.