NBA Betting: Boston can't win the championship without Garnett

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 31 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Nick Shiambouros expects the Los Angeles Lakers to wrap up the Western Conference but he's not convinced of their skinny price in the outright winner market and will be keeping his powder dry until the play-offs.

As the regular season comes to a close in the NBA, the outright winner market is really taking shape with the Los Angeles Lakers the clear favorites to lift the title at [3.0].

The Lakers deserve to be favorites but the price is a little thin for this stage of the season. I backed this team to win the Western Conference at [1.72] in February and I am quite happy with this position. However, I am not about to take the [3.0] on them winning the West and beating Cleveland or Boston in a seven game series. I do not think the price will change much until the play-offs so I would advise waiting until the post season which starts on April 16th before backing LA.

The San Antonio Spurs look like finishing the season as the number two seed and they will be tough in the post-season. Advising punters to back five teams ante-post to win the championship including the Spurs at [18.5] was one of my better decisions. This team is finally healthy again with the return of Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan. The Spurs are still trading at [15.5] which seams a little big to me .

The Portland Trailblazers are coming in to form at the right time and are currently trading at a massive [80.0] on the exchange. I advised backing this team at [65.0] earlier in the year and I may step in again with another wager. This team will be difficult to beat at home and I am sure they will trade at a shorter price at some point. In addition Brandon Roy is playing very well right now.

At the beginning of the year I really thought the Denver Nuggets would be a factor in the post season but I do not think that will be the case. The addition of Chauncey Billups to the rotation has been a success but the rest of the team simply will not defend. I have backed them at [55.0] but I will trade out for a loss.

The two teams that I have backed in the Eastern Conference are the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics. In November I advised backing the Orlando Magic at [38.0] but I unfortunately traded out at [20.0]. The Magic are the surprise package of the season and are sure to be a force to be reckoned with in the post season.

I have backed the Boston Celtics at various prices ranging from [3.9] to [4.5] to win the championship but they are now trading at [5.3]. The main reason for the alarming drift is the health of Kevin Garnett. He has only played sporadic minutes for the Celtics since his return from injury and rumours abound that he has not fully recovered yet. Boston cannot win the championship without a healthy Garnett.

If Boston make it to the finals then they will have to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers who are trading at [3.95].This is a very short price for this team but they have the great LeBron James who has been unstoppable all year. If the Cavaliers keep this level of play up then this price could look like a bargain in a month.