The Betfair Contrarian: Why the New York Yankees won't win the 2009 World Series

MLB / The Betfair Contrarian / 14 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The Dodgers are led by Joe Torre, the fifth-greatest coach of all time and the man who guided the Yankees to their last four World Series wins. No one in all of baseball has a better idea of how the Yankees work than Torre."

The Betfair Contrarian dislikes the hoity-toity New York Yankees more than any sports team on the planet. Below, he explains why he won't be backing them to win the World Series.

The New York Yankees are the most successful franchise ever to have graced baseball.

Their 26 World Series titles are 16 more than any other team but they are currently in the midst one of their least fruitful periods. However, the Yankees are [2.32] on Betfair to remind the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and LA Angels who's boss by winning the 2009 World Series. Here's why you should oppose them:

They've endured nine barren years

After dominating baseball in the late 1990s, winning four World Series in five years between 1996 and 2000, the Yankees have underperformed, suffering their third longest post-World War Two lean streak. They have appeared in the Series twice since, although not since 2003, but have come unstuck on both occasions. Two of the other three teams still in with a shout - the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Philadelphia Phillies - have both been victorious since the Yankees last success.

Nine is no magic number

On a slightly more superstitious note, there has only ever been one instance in baseball history of a World Series drought coming to an end after precisely nine years and that was for the Boston Red Sox way back in 1912. In the 96 years since, winless streaks have been ended after seven, eight, 10 and 11 years but never nine.

Successful players rarely make successful managers

In football its known as the John Barnes syndrome, although Roy Keane has also recently helped prove there is no guaranteed transition between collecting trophies as a player and then as a manager. Baseball is no different, which should concern Yankees boss Joe Girardi, who won three World Series as a player for the club (even if it was as back-up catcher). Just one series-winning manager since 1990 had previously triumphed in his playing days and that was Mike Scioscia (2002), who leads the Yankees American League Championship Series opponents the Angels. It's even rarer to succeed at the same stomping ground you did as a player; the last man to do so was Billy Martin in 1977.

Their regular season record counts for little

The Yankees status as favourites is influenced by the fact they have the best regular season record of the four sides in contention. However, the team with the best win percentage of the final four have gone on to win the World Series just once in the last six years. The four American League Championship Series contested by the Yankees this decade have been won by the franchise with the inferior regular season record, which doesnt stand them in good stead against the Angels.

A familiar face could come back to haunt them

If the Yankees defy the above trends to reach the World Series, the market suggests that they will meet the Los Angeles Dodgers [4.7]. They have met four times in the Series since the Dodgers moved to LA and the west-coasters boast an aggregate game lead of 12-10 and won the most recent in 1981. They are also now led by Joe Torre, statistically the fifth-greatest coach of all time and more significantly the man who guided the Yankees to their last four World Series wins. No one in all of baseball has a better idea of how the Yankees work than Torre.

It's destined to be Angels versus Dodgers anyway

Should the Angels and Dodgers overcome the Yankees and defending champions the Phillies, the World Series will be contested by the two LA teams in what is traditionally known as a Freeway Series because they can travel to one another's grounds along Interstate 5. State derbies are not as rare as you would expect and there have already been two this decade: in 2000 the Yankees met the New York Mets (a Subway Series) and two years later there was another Californian collision as the Angels locked horns with the San Francisco Giants.