Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 39: Election selection!

General Election Betting / Jack Houghton / 02 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

"The weather forecast is fine for Thursday, and work done in the US suggests this may be a much better predictor of voter turnout than any other indicator. The Betting Challenge is having £25 on voter turnout being higher than 75.01 per cent at [13.0]."

Our man of many betting tastes goes to the Thursday's election armed with a big hunch on a few marginals...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Two recounts and an eventual victory margin of 347 votes made Guildford -- HQ for the Houghton Betting Challenge -- one of the closest run constituencies in the 2005 General Election. That Anne Milton -- the victorious Conservative candidate -- was sent to Westminster when 53,000 of the 76,000 registered Guildford voters didn't select her, tells us something about the nonsensical electoral system that will presumably change should there be a hung parliament after May 6th. It also tells us that Guildford -- with Milton a [1.55] shot to retain her seat -- is of interest from a punting point of view.

Taking into account boundary changes, recalculations of the 2005 result suggest Milton's winning majority would have slimmed to less than a hundred votes. Add to that a pollster predicted rise in UKIP support that will cannibalise the Tory vote and a presumed swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats; and it looks like the price available on Milton retaining her seat is overly short. What's more, her ubiquitous strained smile adorning omnipresent campaign posters freaks me out a little. So the Betting Challenge is having £30 on the Liberal Democrats at [2.76].

And money can be made by supporting the Yellows in many of the constituencies that were closely fought last time. Boundary recalculations in Solihull suggest Liberal, Lorely Burt, would have missed out to Tory incumbent John Taylor in 2005, but again, support swings from Labour to the Liberal Democrats makes the [1.98] available on a repeat result look appealing. The Betting Challenge is having £20 on.

Completing our constituency betting for General Election 2010 are two punts on Liberal candidates to take out incumbent Labour MPs in Edinburgh South and Hampstead and Kilburn. I'm having £70 on each at [1.59] and [1.56] respectively.

Thursday will be a big day for the Betting Challenge. Should the surge in Liberal Democrat poll support be reflected in the popular result -- returning a hung parliament for the first time since 1974 -- we will very rapidly return to within sight of profitability, and I'll be telling everyone of that magical moment in early December when I predicted the rise of Nick Clegg's brigade -- when everyone else was talking about the likely size of the Conservative majority.

To complete our political portfolio then, a slightly speculative punt on voter turnout. In ten of the 17 post-war elections, voter turnout has been greater than 75 per cent. However, a supposed increase in voter apathy has seen it drop markedly since 1992, with only around 60 per cent of the electorate turning out in 2001 and 2005. It might be too soon to predict the death of the popular vote though. The leader debates have certainly engaged a new audience with the political process and, unlike the last three General Elections, there are no foregone conclusions this time around.

What's more, the weather forecast is fine for Thursday, and work done in the US suggests this may be a much better predictor of voter turnout than any other indicator. The Betting Challenge is having £25 on voter turnout being higher than 75.01 per cent at [13.0].

This week's bets:
£30 BACK Liberal Democrats at [2.76] in Guildford.
£20 BACK Liberal Democrats at [1.98] in Solihull.
£70 BACK Liberal Democrats at [1.59] in Edinburgh South.
£70 BACK Liberal Democrats at [1.56] in Hampstead and Kilburn.
£25 BACK of 75.01 Per Cent or Greater at [13.0] in Voter Turnout market.

Already recommended:
£40 BACK Jul-Sept 2010 at [5.8] in Leader Exit Dates, Gordon Brown - 29/10/09.
£40 BACK Manchester United at [3.35] in Premier League - 06/12/09.
£20 BACK No Overall Majority at [4.1] in Next General Election - 11/12/09.
£50 BACK 54 Seats+, Lib Dems at [2.0] in Next General Election - 29/01/10.
£40 BACK Topalov at [2.16] to win World Chess Championship - 14/04/10.
£60 BACK Under 10.5 seats at [2.0] in Conservative Majority market - 14/04/10.
£70 BACK Tottenham at [1.86] in Top Four Premiership market - 18/04/10.
£20 LAY France at [2.2] to win Group A - 18/04/10.
£20 BACK Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H - 18/04/10.
£60 LAY of Jul-Sept 2010 at [3.1] in Leader Exit Dates, Gordon Brown - 18/04/10.