General Election Bet of the Day: Conservatives to win Crewe and Nantwich

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Edward Timpson celebrates his 2008 by-election victory

"I still think the Conservatives will confirm the by-election victory of 2008, albeit with a much reduced majority, and win Crewe and Nantwich at odds of [1.68].

Paul Krishnamurty explains why he believes that Edward Timpson can hang on after his famous by-election victory two years ago...

The moment when the Conservatives won a resounding victory in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election may well be remembered as the high point of David Cameron's popularity. The 17% swing was by far his party's best by-election performance since the 1980s, and given this seat's position way down the Tory target-list, appeared to signal a decisive changing of the national mood.

Two years on and Cameron's bubble may have already burst, even before he gets the top job. Labour are barely any more popular than they were in 2008, but the key swing voters seem to be rejecting the idea that the Tories are the only alternative. Nevertheless, I still think they'll confirm that by-election victory, albeit with a much reduced majority, and deliver at odds of [1.68].

Crewe and Nantwich was always more marginal than the 2005 figures suggested. Gwyneth Dunwoody was a very popular local MP, and will have benefitted from a substantial personal vote. When she died, it reverted to being a typical English marginal, likely to reflect the national mood. The memory of their particularly nasty by-election campaign may also hurt Labour's chances, especially as 'toff' MP Edward Timpson is reportedly popular and active in the constituency.

This is also the type of seat where the Lib Dem national advance will eat into the Labour vote and make the seat much more vulnerable to the Tories. The Nantwich section is strongly Tory, and likely to see higher turnout out than the more working-class Crewe. As they already scored 32.6% here in 2005, the Tories should only need to gain a couple of thousand votes to reach their target against an increasingly split opposition.