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Newmarket Betting: Graham Cunningham on the early Guineas action

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As the saying goes, form is temporary but class is permanent. Graham Cunningham shows us his class as he analyses the fickle nature of form.

Dance a lively longshot to call the tune on 1000 Guineas day

Cast your mind back to this week last year...

Curlin was just another promising Kentucky Derby hopeful. Six months on he was the best horse in the world. Lucarno had never set foot on a racecourse twelve months ago. Five months on he was winning the St Leger. And Peeping Fawn was an unheralded maiden in the spring of 2007. Four months on she was hailed as the best filly in Europe with four consecutive Group 1 wins.

In short, stars can wax and wane very quickly on the level. With that in mind it's dangerous to look too far ahead, but there is some mileage in scanning the Guineas markets at this time of year.

And Aidan O'Brien's Savethisdanceforme holds clear trading potential ahead of the 1000 Guineas. The first point to make about this year's race is that it looks as though Europe's best miling fillies could be absent.

Zarkava, Conference Call, Listen and Proviso are all set to miss Newmarket for various reasons, but Savethisdanceforme is on target and has the potential to shorten in the market considerably before May 4.

Granted, at first glance a record of two wins from seven starts is hardly inspiring, but Savethisdanceforme showed very smart form to hose up in a Curragh Listed race last autumn and impressed again when pipped in a Group 3 at the same venue recently.

Desperate ground and 2lb overweight found her out that day, but Savethisdanceforme did more than enough to suggest that she has trained on well and those who back her win and place at 20-1 could be in an attractive trading position if next week's trials prove inconclusive.

Raven's Pass worth keeping an eye on as the 2000 draws closer

Not for the first time, the 2000 Guineas market revolves around horses who staked their classic claims in Newmarket's Dewhurst Stakes.

In theory, New Approach is the clear pick of the bunch after storming home to pip Fast Company at Newmarket, but it's intriguing to note that the Betfair layers have been out to get him of late.

Fast Company has been friendless in the Guineas market on the back of reports of distinctly ordinary workouts in Dubai, while his Godolphin stablemate Rio De La Plata looks more likely to head to Longchamp than HQ at this stage.

Ibn Khaldun's impressive Racing Post Trophy success gives him the look of Godolphin's main Guineas colt, while O'Brien followers will be well aware that the Leopardstown Group 3 won by Jupiter Pluvius has been boosted twice this week.

However, it would come as no surprise if Raven's Pass made up into a leading Guineas contender this spring. Granted, he finished three lengths behind New Approach last October, but the holding ground seemed less than ideal and blunted the striking turn of foot which saw him bolt up in Sandown's Solario Stakes.

Much will change on the back of next week's trials at Newmarket and Newbury, but at this stage Raven's Pass makes moderate win and place appeal in a race which looks to have a great deal more depth than the 1000 Guineas.

Dobbin needs no assistance to go out a winner

Without wishing to get overly sentimental, there is real dignity in the career of jump jockeys like Tony Dobbin. It hails from the graft and the glory but also from the pain and the pig headedness needed to endure through three decades riding for many of the most demanding trainers in Britain.

Sadly, Dobbin's farewell ride aboard Ballyvoge at Carlisle was tainted by the controversy over the ride Michael McAlister gave to the runner-up Lord Samposin.

In case you have been away, McAlister abandoned his usual dynamic style to give Lord Samposin a tender finish followed by an untimely drop of the reins as things got really tight close home.

The case has been referred to Shaftesbury Avenue, which precludes too much further comment, but it's clear the stewards on the day felt there was at least a possibility that McAlister was soft pedalling in order to help Dobbin go out on a high.

And if that's the case, he deserves what is coming. Dobbin had earned every single cheer which rang out for him at Carlisle on Thursday. He thoroughly warranted the guard of honour from his riding colleagues as he went out for his final ride on Ballyvoge and being chaired shoulder high afterwards.

But whether a proud man like Dobbin deserved the unsettling bit that came in between is another matter altogether.

Prime Exhibit the name to note for 2008

The dawn of the Flat also means the return of the Racing Post's Ten To Follow competition. As someone who scribbles a weekly piece for the paper I'm barred from entering. And, with due respect to its many devotees, it doesn't bother me in the slightest.

The very idea of following one horse blindly right through a season - let alone ten - leaves me colder than Richard Dunwoody during his visit to the South Pole.

That said, no punter with any love for the game starts the turf campaign without at least one name to look out for. And the one whose name has the boldest ring round it in the Cunningham notebook is Prime Exhibit.

Roger Charlton's colt caught the eye on both his starts as a juvenile, travelling like a dream for a long way on his Haydock debut before landing a Leicester maiden with plenty in hand from a couple of subsequent winners.

He's a good looker with a fine pedigree and appeals as a ready made winner of a handicap given that he's currently rated in the low 80's. Time will tell what his best trip proves to be, but he has a high cruising speed and plenty of scope for further improvement.

McElvey death the sad price jumps fans have to pay for National glory

Nobody doubts that the Grand National exacts a high price - and McElvey's death was a sorry event for all concerned - but listening to the reaction on a hastily organised Radio Five Live phone-in last Saturday night crystallised what those who defend racing are up against.

Bizarrely, the first caller argued that McElvey should have been put in traction so he could be saved for the Flat, while the standard of debate didn't get much better as National bashers queued up to argue that innocent horses are being sent to their deaths purely to feed the greed of punters.

The BBC's Clare Balding and the BHA's Paul Struthers did their best to put the case for the defence in the face of a wave of kneejerk emotion, but all the talk in the world will not take away from the core of this argument.

Racing - like every other equine pursuit - claims the lives of several horses a week and will do so no matter how many safety and welfare provisions are put in place.

Those who love the sport digest that painful fact and make their peace with it. And those who oppose it will continue to do their best to get the sport done away with no matter what those provisions are.

The question is, where should the concessions stop?