York Ebor / Graham Cunningham / 20 August 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

What must it be like to have a life of pampered luxury at stud whipped away from you just because your ammo is less than live? It happened to Kingsgate Native, but Sir Michael Stoute's horse has returned to racing with a vengeance and lines up as hot favourite for the Nunthorpe Stakes on the final day of York's Ebor Festival. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels the favourite will be tough to beat but also has his beady eye on a lively outsider for Europe's premier five furlong dash.

1.45

A cracking handicap full of horses who would have graced the Ebor and my angle involves keeping Classic Vintage firmly on my side with possible place lays of Braveheart Move, Alcalde and Too Much Trouble for good measure.

Classic Vintage was one of the most impressive handicap winners of the week at Glorious Goodwood and the way he idles in front suggests his prospects of confirming the form with the likes of Cosmic Sun and Akmal over this longer trip are bright.

I'll be surprised and poorer if Too Much Trouble takes his revenge on Classic Vintage. He looked to be going through a severe case of the sulks at Goodwood, while Alcalde looked equally wayward when collared late at Newmarket last weekend and Braveheart Move has a 6lb penalty for winning a much less demanding handicap with little in hand at Pontefract on Sunday.

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2.15

The absence of Glass Harmonium gives this a very complex look and at this stage I suspect this could be the best race on the card to treat with caution.

South African raider Russian Sage has the highest official mark of 116 and, given that he had the likes of Vodka and Imbongi behind him when second in a G2 race in Dubai, he plainly warrants considerable respect.

Perfect Stride was ridden more prominently than usual at Royal Ascot and duly reaped the benefit with a battling Wolferton Handicap success. He's another with plenty in his favour, while Spring of Fame is smart and reliable with conditions to suit.

In short, if you don't know it's best to say so. And I don't know what to make of this one.

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2.50

Confront and Huntdown look the two headline acts here and splitting them isn't easy.

Huntdown is the more lightly raced, and he showed that he's trained on very well on his Newmarket reappearance, but I'm happy to give one more chance to Confront.

Granted, Sir Michael Stoute's runner has been beaten at shortish odds on a couple of occasions, but his best form makes him the clear pick of the weights here and he wasn't too far below that level when collared late by the rejuvenated Mac Love at Salisbury on his latest start.

He steps down from a mile to seven furlongs here, so Ryan Moore looks sure to ride him positively. He's a good bet to trade fairly short in running and a fair bet to still be bang there passing the winning post.

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3.25

No Fleeting Spirit, no Overdose and no Scenic Blast.

In other words, we have a Nunthorpe short of genuine Group 1 five furlong horses and despite the big field I would like to think we can focus on a relatively small core of horses.

Kingsgate Native heads them and thoroughly deserves to after making some smart sprinters look second rate at Goodwood. I'm still kicking myself for not lumping on him each way at the 9-2 and 4-1 that was on offer for a week or so after that race.

Still, the sole question now relates to whether the current Betfair price of [3.75] represents value. On balance, I suspect that is a very fair price.

Radiohead continues to be popular in the market, but if he wins I'll lose. Granted, two-year-olds can win this race with their considerable weight concession - as Kingsgate Native showed two years ago - but the two horses he beat in the Norfolk Stakes are well below the best juveniles and the fact that he's a free-going hold-up horse is another potential concern.

Indeed, if Kingsgate Native is to be beaten then Amour Propre is the one. Henry Candy's horse showed potential star quality when bounding away with the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket only to fade tamely in the King's Stand at Ascot.

Candy feels his horses were going off the boil at the time, but as Roaring Forte showed on Thursday it often pays to forgive a horse a poor Ascot run.

I'm certainly prepared to give Amour Propre another chance and his freewheeling style looks made for this fast five furlongs.

Tags: Alcalde, Amour Propre, Braveheart Move, Classic Vintage, Confront, Huntdown, Kingsgate Native, Nunthorpe Stakes, Too Much Trouble