The Derby / Jack Houghton / 02 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Jack Houghton reflects on a salutary Derby betting experience as he looks for value in this weekend's big race at Epsom.

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Five years' ago I headed into Derby weekend with a glittering portfolio of bets centred on the Ballydoyle first-string: Gypsy King. With a string of single bets at an average price of around 25/1 -- and a whole host of multiple bets running on to the second-favourite -- I stood to win an amount way in excess of anything I'd won before on a single event and, as it happens, way in excess of my annual salary at the time.

On the morning of the race I could have hedged my position and taken a guaranteed profit that, whilst not life-changing, would have more than quadrupled my betting bank. But, for some reason, I didn't hedge. By my reckoning, Gypsy King was still the most likely winner of the race and, to hedge, when his price still represented value, would have been irrational. The fact that over a quarter of my betting bank was exposed to the result of this one event should have told me that rationality had long ago ceased to be a factor. But it didn't. And so I watched -- balls deep -- as Gypsy King awkwardly descended Tattenham Hill, failing to get within striking distance of a rampant Motivator.

The whole experience -- whilst financially painful -- was nonetheless salutary. Winning at punting is about having a small analytical advantage over the market that, over time, allows you to eke out a profit. The successful punter is like the successful opening batsman in test cricket -- playing the percentage shots that slowly and surely add runs to the total. The Gypsy King Affair (as my biographer will no doubt refer to it in years to come) represented the tail-ender trying to slog the required nine runs off the last three balls. Deep.

Despite this lesson being long-since learnt, I find myself in a similar position heading into this year's Derby. Not in my personal betting you understand -- that's taken care of. I had a few small bets on Jan Vermeer at around 12-1 after his Criterium win in November and, should he win, my betting fortunes will receive a welcome fillip after an indifferent May. If he loses, the amounts aren't significant enough for me to question why, five years' on, I haven't learnt to hedge.

No, the conundrum I face is with this darned Betting Challenge. You see, by my reckoning, Jan Vermeer should be close to even money; and yet, there he is, tantalisingly juicy at [3.25]. Add to this the situation the Betting Challenge finds itself in -- £500 down with nine weeks to go -- and you'll see my problem. All I need do is stick a Sampras (£250; think half-monkey) on him and bang, come Saturday afternoon, I'm back in profit.

His Criterium win is the best piece of form on offer by about half-a-stone; he showed his well-being with a facile win in the Gallinule Stakes; and his stable have decided to send Cape Blanco -- the next best horse in the field -- to France, suggesting they feel Jan Vermeer will easily account for the Dante second and third. I know for certain I should be backing him; I just don't know how much to have on.

Sure, there's a small doubt about whether faster ground at Epsom will suit -- his stand out performance in France was on heavy ground -- but, that aside, his rivals will have to improve dramatically on what they've shown so far to trouble him.

Enough talking. It's time to man-up. The Betting Challenge is having £250 on at [3.25]. The Gypsy is banished from my memory. Get ready to hail the king.

This week's bets:
£250 Back Jan Vermeer at [3.25] to win Epsom Derby.

Already recommended:
£20 Lay France at [2.2] to win Group A - 18/04/10.
£20 Back Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A- 18/04/10.
£20 Back of South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B- 18/04/10.
£20 Back of Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H - 18/04/10.

Tags: horseracing betting, Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge, Jan Vermeer, The Epsom Derby