The Derby / Geoffrey Riddle / 04 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Our big race blogger is back doing what he does best - bringing you live betting updates, results and more, so who's his fancy for the Oaks? Read on to find out, and feel free to email him on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.45pm
As Columbo might say, 'just one more thing.' Backers of Rumoosh in the Oaks should probably give Marcus Tregoning's filly one last chance after her flop in the 1,000 Guineas and now the Oaks.

The Lambourn trainer believes that his Sheikh Hamdan-owned filly didn't handle the unique camber that Epsom offers.

"She's run a goodish race," he said of her fourth-placed finish. "But i think she's got unbalanced. Possibly she didn't handle the course, which surprised me a little bit."
Tregoning must speak to the filly's owner before making any plans, but he continued: "The Yorkshire Oaks is a possibility - the track will suit her better as long as they get the ground right."

It was a sentiment that was levelled by Michael Jarvis, who also felt his once-raced filly Sajjha, who finished last, didn't like the camber here. "she got very unbalanced down the hill and Frankie [Dettori] said her chance had gone before they came around the corner."

That's me done today then folks. The RUK boys have wound their day up, too, and unfortunately for them, they haven't switched off their transmission in the press room. There's bound to be all sorts of banter coming out of there, banter they probably don't want us to hear. If anything juicy comes up, I'll let you know here tomorrow.
Same time, same place, people. 11am.

5.25pm result:
1: Cansili Star
2: Treadwell
3: Kajima
I cannot believe that Treadwell didn't trade shorter in-running than his [1.55] price. He looked the winner in all but the last 50 yards, as Philip Robinson conjured a late run out of Canisli Star. It was recompense for trainer Michael Jarvis, who has probably suffered a bit of abuse from racegoers here today who believe they lost their money on Sajjha in the Oaks because of him.

Kajima stayed on for third, leaving Al Farahidi out of the picture.
I feel I'm slowly turning into a more regular layer. Oh, the dark side...

5.10pm
I watched the Oaks standing in front of Ed Dunlop, who won his second Fillies' Classic in six years. You have to stand in front of him, because the man is a giant.

As the son of John Dunlop, he's naturally a restrained sort, but having scooped the big prize he was surprisingly hoarse a moment ago. "I have lost my voice!", said Dunlop. "It was a master ride from a master jockey," he enthused about champion jockey Ryan Moore's piloting.

"We got lucky that Ryan was available and we'd won half the battle when we found out he could ride."

Dunlop wasn't keen on comparing his two superstar fillies. "You can't compare her to Ouija Board," he continued. "It's just great to have two Oaks. Snow Fairy isn't in any other races at the moment and some of the options are quite expensive. The natural thing would be the Irish Oaks but she would have to be supplemented so I will discuss it with the owner, Mrs Patino."

5.05pm
The failure of Captain Kirkup in the previous race has dented the chances of Treadwell and Nosedive in the lucky last. Both horses have formlines that run through that horse.

I think Kajima is rock solid here. Trainer Richard Hannon has won this race twice, and placed twice in the last decade. There's a lot of pace about, and I although it has been hard to pass along this idiosyncratic track, Snow Fairy did it in the Oaks, as did Tartan Gigha in the Investec Mile.

The favourite, Al Farahidi likes to force the pace, as does Cansili Star, Kingston Acacia, and possibly even Whistleinthewind.

It's going to be pretty tough up there in front, and I've gone with Kajima at [5.2] to hold up and come through late. He might even be worth backing in-running at a decent price.

4.50pm result:
1: Shakespearean
2: Yaa Wayl
3: Mon Cadeaux
The crowd give Frankie Dettori a big shout as he leads back Shakespearean to the winners' enclosure. Alex Stedman, RUK pundit and Betting.betfair contributor tipped that one earlier this morning.
Hands up who had the £4 on Snow Fairy to win the Oaks at 999-1 in the ante-post market?

4.05pm result - The Oaks
1: Snow Fairy
2: Meeznah
3: Remember When
These amateur gamblers, eh? Snow Fairy, who was supplemented into the Oaks at a cost of £20,000, just won trainer Ed Dunlop a fair proportion of the £208,118 that Epsom offers the winner of the Fillies' Classic. Supplementing horses is just the same as punting.

Boxed in as the brave Akdarena made a continued bid for home, Snow Fairy, looked a folorn hope a quarter of a mile from home. The mount of champion jockey Ryan Moore traded at [30.0] in-running as layers opposed the eventual winner expecting her challenge to be closed off for ever.

But Jockey Kevin Manning was plugging away at Akdarena with more hope than finesse as Jim Bolger's brave filly, who had fought off the challenge of Gertrude Bell, sank back with the Gosden horse. She was matched at as short as [3.75].

Quick as a flash, Moore saw the opening, and angling his mount to the stands side rail he galvanised Snow Fairy to give Dunlop a second Oaks since Ouija Board won in 2004.

3.50pm
Okay. Joke's over now guys. Why on earth is Sajjha trading at [3.0] to place in the Oaks? It's a complete farce. I understand completely that Michael Jarvis is an ace trainer, and that he came within a whisker of winning the Derby with a similarly lightly-raced type in Hala Bek. But this is the Oaks, the race that everyone wants to win, and needs to win for breeding rights. You don't get this handed on a plate.

Admittedly, she looks an absolute picture in the ring. But really. Aviate, Akdarena, Timepiece, who Henry Cecil has not lost faith in and Aidan O'Brien's Remember When, should all be ahead of the once-raced filly in the betting. I'm not saying she can't win. I'm not even saying she won't win. But as far as a betting is concerned, you won't get poor laying for a place once-raced fillies in Classics at [3.0].

3.45pm
An over-officious paddock guard would not allow Aidan O'Brien into the ring, simply because he didn't have his pass on him. "I'm sorry sir, if you haven't got a pass, you can't come in."

O'Brien couldn't bring himself to say anything. He simply looked at the man with bewilderment. Unbelievable. Anyway, it gave me the opportunity to find out about his trio of fillies in the Oaks.

Remember When is clearly their main hope, but Ben, who emailed in earlier, I can confirm that Cabaret is more than simply a pacemaker in the fillies' Classic.
"Sure, she'll run well," O'Brien said, in his familiar Irish sing-song. "She's not in as a pacemaker though. She'll race handy and I'm hopeful."

I appreciate that he generally doesn't give away that much, but that suggests that she's at least in the race on her own merit, which means Awe Inspiring will make the running for the O'Brien team.

That therefore means that backers of Akdarena, the big springer in the market, should be more hopeful. Jim Bolger's charge is a jumpy little filly, with a habit of tail-swishing, but the canny Irish trainer has added a tongue-strap and headgear to settle her. She likes to force the pace, too, so with Cabaret likely to settle as a presser, jockey Kevin Manning will only have the Ballydoyle third string to content with up front.

Bolger last won the Oaks with Jet Ski lady in 1991, which was a pillar-to-post effort. Can lightning strike twice?

3.25pm result:
1: Fiery Lad
2: Ramona Chase
3: Thin Red Line
Kieren Fallon secures a double on Oaks day, showing that he is well and truly in the groove at the moment.

Now the e-mail is working again, I have got an interesting one from Ben, who is hard at work in an office overlooking the Thames. How nice. He's punting like crazy, and backed Fame And Glory in-running at [2.5].

"Aidan O'Brien has got his string in superb form," he relates. "Everyone is telling me that Remember When is the one, but what about Cabaret?"

I certainly wouldn't put you off, Ben. She was a Group 3 winner as a two-year-old before a complete no-show in the Prix Marcel Boussac at the Arc meeting. The excuse there, despite being sent off 9-2, was that her saddle slipped, leaving jockey Johnny Murtagh with no hope.

The run behind Aviate in the Musidora at York is less easily explained away. She started favourite for the York race, but trailed in sixth lengths behind Henry Cecil's taking winner. O'Brien saddled 26 consecutive losers in April, and even though Cape Blanco was impressive at the same meeting, he was so sore afterwards that many people thought he might not race this weekend.

What's more, the Musirora is not like the Dante, in that horses beaten in the fillies' trial do
have a history of going on to scoop the Fillies' Classic. Alexandrova is a recent example.

All in all, if Cabaret's York performance can be explained away by the form of O'Brien's yard, then at [55.0] she's one heck of price considering her breeding suggests she'll stay every millimetre of the 12 furlongs here. More realistically though, perhaps the [14.5] for her to place is the safer option.

3.25pm
They are picking the best turned out filly in the winners' enclosure now. A gaggle of women styled up in the vain hope that Anton du Beke, of all people, will choose them as the best dressed woman at the racecourse.

It turns out that the winner, an Aussie called Kate (is there anything they don't win?), bought most of her outfit at Primark. Oh dear.

3.10pm
Gosh, now that race is out of the way, you can really feel the crowd's excitement. The big guns all featured at some point during the Coronation Cup, and following that race, two helicopters have just arrived for the big one, the Oaks, run after the next race.

To whet racegoers' appetites though, Johnny Murtagh was sacrificed to the crowd in the winners' enclosure, answering a few questions.

Murtagh was understandably still pumped after his Coronation win on Fame And Glory, who is now favourite for the Arc de Triomphe in October.

"He was always in command," enthused the Irishman. "He probably travelled a bit too well at the beginning. Sariska came at me though and I thought we would be in for a fight, but he put his head down and won well."

"My horse is in top form, I've got great belief in him and god willing, he might come home in front."

There's little liquidity in Betfair's ante-post markets, but for the small-staking punter there's some money in a [6.0], about the Coronation winner in the Arc.

Coronation Cup result:
1: Fame And Glory
2: Sariska
3: High Heeled
Fame And Glory sticks a hoof up at the girls on Oaks day and comfortably accounts for Sariska in the Coronation Cup.

Patient punters out there secured a great price, too, because as Michael Bell's filly loomed up to challenge, so did Cavalryman, Youmzain, and briefly High Heeled. Aidan O'Brien's charge drifted immediately to [7.4] in-running as punters' faith in the favourite buckled.

As the pack, descended, however, Johnny Murtagh let out the reins and Fame And Glory pulled clear. It wasn't acceleration, more perspiration, as the son of Montjeu just kept on running, grounding down his rivals. Terrific stuff.

2.40pm
I've just had the most bizarre experience. An old man thrust a programme into my face and asked for my signature. Now this is not something I'd usually relate, but seeing as there is a picture byeline I think it is fair.

"May I have your autograph?" he asked politely. I looked at him, and bearing in mind he had given me the option to say no, using 'may I', I could only ask him who he thought I was.

"It was such a pleasure to see your horse win the Derby last year, sir," he said sweetly. "Sea The Stars gave me real pleasure."

Idiot.

2.30pm
I backed Cavalryman to win the Arc and I was crestfallen when he was handed stall 19 in Paris. He had an impossible task to beat Sea the Stars from there, and Frankie Dettori rode a magnificent race to get him to within two lengths of the greatest horse of a generation.

Saeed Bin Suroor's horses have been under a cloud this season, but the brave run of Alexandros there, and the fact that he sent out Rio De La Palata and Roayh this week suggests that he may have turned a corner, from five winners from 45 runners prior to Sunday. He looks a stupid price at [12.0], considering he finished ahead of Fame And Glory when they last met in the Arc.

Fame And Glory was under two lengths shy of Sea the Stars here in the Derby last year, a further two-and-a-half lengths short at Leopardstown and four-and-a-half behind at Longchamp. Although not quite back to his best this season, he has certainly looked authoritative last time out and was probably value at the [2.34] he was matched at earlier this morning. Aidan O'Brien certainly is bullish about him.

I reckon those two are the ones for the forecast.

2.10pm result:
1: Tartan Gigha
2: Set The Trend
3: Vainglory
4: Gaily Noble
The heavily gambled-on Set The Trend was just denied by a cheeky Keiren Fallon aboard Tartan Gigha. Jimmy Fortune got first run off what looked a searing pace, and although halfway down the straight I thought he might hang on, as they approached the final furlong, he looked in danger of getting beaten. Punters backed over £2,500 on the long-time leader at prices of [1.05] and [1.06].

Fallon had Tartan Gigha positioned perfectly for a late challenge, and the man who told us earlier that Epsom is all about 'sitting or kicking', kicked for home and won pretty well, but by a short-head. There must be more to come.

2.05pm
Set The Trend looked an absolute picture in the paddock, gleaming and bossy. He's been well-backed, too, and is the late favourite now at [5.6].

1.55pm
Extraterrestrial's best races have come on left-handed tracks like Epsom. If you look at Racing Post Ratings, Richard Fahey's gelding has broken the 100 barrier on turf at Thirsk, Doncaster, Ayr and Newbury.

It's quite clear that the six-year-old prefers some juice in the ground, although he did run the decent Manassas to half a length in the Spring Cup last year on good to firm. It's probably the reason he trades at [16.5] for the next race, off at 2.10pm.

Mull Of Killough was of those more obviously affected by the scrimmaging in the Spring Cup at Newbury in April. He also didn't appreciate the soft going on his seasonal reappearance in the Lincoln when he was third behind Penitent, who did that form no favours just now by bombing in the opening race. His best career start so far in eight racecourse appearances was on good to firm when accounting for Light From Mars. I reckon he should be joint-favourite with Tartan Gigha at the very least.

Below is a list of horses that are entered in the Royal Hunt Cup, who also take part in the 2.10pm. The prices for the Ascot mile handicap are the best available on the high street, so if you fancy any of them today, you had better get on now.
Audmar 66-1
Mull Of Killough 25-1
Tartan Gigha 20-1
Vitznau 33-1

1.40pm result:
1: Bushman
2: Alexandros
3: Mabait
Bushman, who has raced 14 times, strikes in the first for Ireland under an excellent ride from young star William Buick. The 21-year-old had the six-year-old set handy in second, and when they came into the final quarter-mile, Buick extended his mount to find more.
At that moment, Frankie Dettori ranged up aboard Alexandros, who was matched in-running at a low of [1.16], but the eventual winner kept on finding more and won a shade cosily.

I watched the race next to Bushman's groom, Ben, who was shouting the house down by the time they reached the big screen in the straight. And to think, Ben told me his pride and joy had a great chance before the race. ...

1.30pm
The Lincoln looks a strong race on paper, with four subsequent winners from that race, but none of the next five to follow Penitent home have gone on to win. It's another reason why Willie Haggas' charge is on the drift for the first race (1.40pm). He can be backed at [4.8].

The only issue with backing Mabait and Penitent, or even The Cheka is that, time and again, lightly-raced, promising four-year-old's turn up here and get beaten by a horse that has been around the block a few times. That grizzled campaigner, Mac Love, beat the lightly-raced favourite Confront last year, and Blythe Knight accounted for the then wet-behind the ears Alexandros the year before that. For further evidence of this, a favourite hasn't scored in the Diomed for the last seven years.

Alexandros or Harrison George anyone?

1.15pm
Kieren Fallon has been at it again. Tipping that is. He's up on Godolphin's Al Zir in tomorrow's Derby, and it is clear that the former champ has delved deeply into the form.

"He's third on the speed figures," Fallon revealed. "I've got a template of how I ride the Derby, but until you're in the race you never know whether to kick or sit."

Fallon revealed, however, that if he had the choice, he would have ridden for Ballydoyle, with particular reference to Midas Touch.
"I'd have gone for Midas Touch if I had the choice," Fallon continued. "His time in in the Derrinstown was faster that Galileo and High Chaparral [both of whom went on to win the Derby], which is a record that speaks for itself."

12.45pm
How's this for racecourse rumour. Chris Barnett, the intrepid interviewer for Timeform radio just spoke to Keiren Fallon. Six-time champion jockey Fallon reckoned that The Cheka had an outstanding chance in the first race, despite getting the nod on Mabait, the favourite.

So far, not so interesting. But then he overheard Willie Haggas talking to his son, and Haggas Snr, also reckoned Eve Johnson-Houghton's horse would win the first. Haggas trains Penitent, also in the first race of the day, but as mentioned earlier, is a big drifter. What do you make of that?

12.15pm
Three promotion girls are harmonising out the front of the course, trying to lure racegoers into the Queen's Stand with their honeyed song. "Sirens they may sound like, but they certainly don't look like them," quipped one witty punter.

In the Oaks itself, the big mover is Jim Bolger's Akdarena, who has been steadily backed all morning. She opened at [11.5] but is in to [8.4] now. Much like Bolger's other Oaks winner, Jet Ski Lady, Akdarena's style of running is from the front, which is no bad thing here on this undulating track. But like King's Destiny, she's unlikely to have the lead to herself, because Aidan o'Brien runs three, of which at least one will race as a pacemaker.

The well-backed outsider Meeznah also likes to race prominently so if Bolger is going to win his first oaks since 1991, his filly is going to have to do it the hard way.

As far as squeezing any value out of here is concerned, given her style of running, and level of form, she's likely to be bang in contention with a quarter of a mile to race and she looks tailor-made to backing pre-race, and laying off in-running.

Midday
Sticking with the market movers, King's Destiny is also on the drift in the 3.25pm.

Michael Jarvis, who sends out the heavily-touted Sajjhaa in the Oaks, saddles King's Destiny, who heads the handicap on 9st-10lbs. The gelding leaps out of stall one, and likes to set the pace, but will be challenged for the lead by Australia Day, Leceile, and possibly even Swift Chap.

The top-weight opened at [3.35] but is out to [5.2] now, which given the competition on offer to force the pace, looks about the right level.

11.30am
There are some significant market movers on Betfair. In the 1.40pm, Willie Haggas's Lincoln winner, Penitent, has drifted out from [3.5] to [5.1]. His big handicap victory at Doncaster, as far as ratings are concerned, was equal to the performance Mabait put in at Ascot last time when second in the Victoria Cup.

Mabait is now favourite, however, at [4.5], most likely on account of his proven ability to act on today's going, which by post time, will surely be good to firm in this baking sun.

I've had an inauspicious start here. I thought I was dressed up to the nines. I've got a dark linen suit on, perfect for a roasting hot day like today, and yet when I left the media tent a minute ago, all I could hear was John McCririck lambasting some poor fellow for wearing a dark suit. I'm sat next to his wife, aka The Booby, and she was keen to avoid Big Mac, too, who apparently," wanted to go and sit out there in the sun. It's far too hot out there."

11.10am
Good morning everyone and welcome to sun-kissed Epsom for Oaks day. By anyone's measurement, Farenheight, Celsius, Centigrade, it's a scorcher here, perched high up in this beautiful corner of the Surrey Downs.

My taxi driver was getting himself in a bit of a lather on the way up due to the searing heat. "It makes such a difference, sir," he went on. "The sun really brings out the ladies. Ladies, ladies, ladies..."

And have we some ladies on show for you this afternoon. Sariska takes on the boys for just the second time in her career in the Coronation Cup at 2.45pm, while Henry Cecil's fillies, Timepiece and Aviate, bid to hold off the challenge of their 13 other rivals in the Group 1 Oaks an hour and twenty minutes later.

It's a feast of racing, so even if you are holed up at a desk somewhere, I'll endeavour to bring you all the latest market moves, racecourse rumour and insightful interviews from the track.

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