Derby Trends: Big value on Ballydoyle runner... but which one?

The Derby / Simon Baker / 01 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

The Derby betting trends say Cape Blanco is value

"It seems reasonable to assume that the trend towards highly-rated horses coming to the fore in the Derby will continue. Putting a line through all those rated below around 114 immediately reduces the field to just five – Cape Blanco, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Rewilding and Workforce."

Simon Baker of Timeform looks at the trends that count when selecting the 2010 Derby winner

Using Timeform ratings as a Derby trend betting guide, no Epsom winner since Shaamit in 1996 has lined up on the day rated lower than 114. Given that there is nothing entered this year with a similar profile to Shaamit (i.e. a reappearing two-year-old maiden winner) it seems reasonable to assume that the trend towards highly-rated horses coming to the fore in the Derby will continue. Putting a line through all those rated below around 114 immediately reduces the field to just five - Cape Blanco, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Rewilding and Workforce.

Eight of the last ten Derby winners also had a Timeform p attached to their rating, suggesting that improvement was expected. The only two that did not were New Approach, who already had form good enough to win an average Derby, and Sir Percy, who didn't need to match the form of his Guineas second when successful at Epsom. Applying this criterion to the five we were left with earlier reduces that number by one, with Midas Touch missing out.

In terms of experience, no Derby winner since Shaamit had had fewer than three runs before Epsom. The most in that period was the seven times New Approach had run, while Authorized, Motivator, North Light and Kris Kin had each had just three runs up to that point. With this in mind, we can tentatively rule out Workforce, who has had just two runs and arguably lacks the experience for the race, though obviously the likes of Shaamit and Lammtarra have shown that it is no insurmountable obstacle.

Each of the last five Derby winners had won a Group race at two, which counts somewhat against Rewilding, though again, it needs pointing out that three of the previous five, namely North Light, Kris Kin and Galileo had won only maidens as juveniles.

Finally, we consider what the contenders did immediately before they ran in the Derby. From 2000 onwards, eight of ten Derby winners had won their previous race, while the two that didn't had finished runner-up in the 2000 Guineas (Sir Percy) and the Irish 2000 Guineas (New Approach).

The Guineas and the Dante have been the races to focus on in recent years as regards Epsom contenders, with Kris Kin in 2003 the last Derby winner not to have contested either of those races. That criterion would reduce our two remaining candidates down to one - Cape Blanco. You would be hard pushed to find a star among Aidan O'Brien's previous winners of the Gallinule Stakes, the race won last time by Jan Vermeer. Admittedly, it's probably fair to say that Jan Vermeer contested the Gallinule simply because he wasn't ready for alternative assignments earlier in the season given that he was reportedly held back by a bruised foot in March, and frankly it would be crazy to rule him out on the basis of him running in one particular race as opposed to another.

That said, from the perspective of the various criteria laid out above, there is little doubt that Cape Blanco is the best 'fit'. Based on profile and, more importantly, form, Cape Blanco is clearly too big a price at [25.0] for the Derby, though that of course reflects the uncertainty regarding his participation at Epsom.