Check the draw before placing your Ascot bet

Royal Ascot / Wayne Bailey / 16 June 2008 / 1 Comments

Wayne Bailey has the essential stats to see you through the big races this coming week

It's that time once again...160,000 pints of beer, 170,000 bottles of Champagne, and 300,000 attendees. It can only mean one thing: Royal Ascot. The social side of things risks overshadowing the actual racing, but once again we've a feast of Group races awaiting us.

The worlds most prestigious and famous flat festival has a rich history going right back to 1711, when Queen Anne cut the ribbon on the first meeting. Ascot has always been associated with royalty, and became a five-day meeting in 2002, the Queen's Jubilee year. The Berkshire track got a £185m makeover in recent years, and re-opened for business in June 2006.

Despite the hype however, it's a difficult track for punters to find a winner at, and actually ranks bottom of the list in the UK for winning favourites. Since the re-development, certain draw biases have started to emerge, so I've had a look at the figures and analysed how they may affect the main races each day.

I'm not suggesting that you pick your horses based solely on their draw figures, but its effect can have a huge impact on your chances of winning, and is another piece of armoury worth having on your side...

(All data is from 2006 onwards)

Overall
Before breaking it down by distance, it's worth having a look at the overall figures for all races. The stand-out stat here is that the higher drawn horses are at a serious disadvantage in big fields. In fact, stalls 17-30 have only produced 14 winners from 349 races, which works out at just 4%. Of course further breakdown by race distance and field size is required, but based on the crude figures, it's best to be drawn at the lower end of the scale at Ascot.

Tuesday - St James's Palace Stakes
This race takes place over one mile, and stalls one and two show a massive advantage in non-handicaps at that distance. In fact, blindly backing stalls one and two in one-mile non-handicaps at Ascot would have produced nine winners from 44 bets and shows a small profit. Mirroring the overall trend, stalls eight and above perform poorly, producing just two winners from 61 bets and thus can be dismissed. Last year's winner Excellent Art was drawn in stall one.

Wednesday - Prince of Wales Stakes
Interestingly, it's the mid-division horses that do well in distances of 1m2f at Ascot,with stalls 4-6 producing and average win of one in five. Had you stuck a tenner on each horse from those stalls, you'd be £180 better off today. Last year's winner of this race Manduro continued the trend, having been drawn from stall four.

Thursday - Gold Cup
I've had a number of arguments with some racing colleagues over the years as to whether the stall draw matters in long distance races. I'm firmly in the no camp, and as I expected there were no real trends here. This is a stamina test where the jockey must use tactics, so my advice is to forget the stall and concentrate on proven stayers instead.

Friday - Coronation Stakes
Like the St James's Palace Stakes, the distance here is one mile - so again, it's best to be drawn low. Richard Hughes steered home last year's winner Indian Ink, having been drawn from stall two.

Saturday - Golden Jubilee Stakes
In six-furlong races at Ascot, it's generally best to stick with horses drawn in the mid-division. In fact, stalls four to eight have produced 13 winners from 89 runners since 2006 and show a profit of £730 to £10 stakes. The winner of last year's Golden Jubilee bucked the trend having come from stall 11 - however the 2006 winner came home at 33/1, drawn from stall number four.

* * *

Agree? Perhaps you think I'm talking rubbish? If you have an opinion, post a comment and have your say!

Comments (1)

1. barry cole | 17 June 2008

   Great stats as they are obviously an important consideration, however without being a picky pedant.. re the stat that so few horses that are drawn between 17 and 30 win, infact making only 4%, this stat is surely distorted by the fewer races of that number of runners.. Stats are on a like for like basis to be accurate.... Still a great article and i just hope that Bankable will have the number one slot..
   Yours...BC