Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Timeform Runner-by-Runner Guide

Longchamp Arc Meeting / Timeform / 02 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Longchamp Racecourse: Scene of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

"So You Think... has been kept to 10f this term but extra distance won't be a problem (finished third in last year's Melbourne Cup) and excellent chance of giving his trainer a second win in this race."

Timeform give their opinion on each of the runners lining up in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp....

Workforce became only the sixth horse to win both the Derby and the Arc in 2010 and showed with his excellent second to So You Think in the Eclipse that he's every bit as good this year as last. Beaten favourite in the King George for the second year running when runner-up to Nathaniel, veering left in the last 2f, though in truth it didn't really dent his reputation, particularly when thinking back to an even heavier defeat in Ascot's showpiece before his success in this last year. It would be no surprise to see him become the first horse to win back-to-back Arcs since Alleged in 1977/78.

St Nicholas Abbey was the leading European two year-old in 2009, when he won the Beresford and the RP Trophy. Had just the one start as a 3-y-o, when beaten favourite in the 2000 Guineas, but back in full swing this season, winning Chester's Ormonde Stakes and the Coronation Cup at Epsom (beating Midday by a length). His latest two outings have not panned out in his favour (small fields and a lack of pace) and better can be expected here, given that the race is likely to be run to suit. A risky proposition but one that may have slipped under the radar.

Silver Pond took a bit of time to confirm the promise shown on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix Exbury back in March, but on his first try at a mile and a half in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly he produced his best effort yet to beat Behkabad by a head (receiving 7 lb from the runner-up). Strictly on that evidence, he would probably struggle to beat horses of a similar calibre to Behkabad at level-weights, but he remains one to be positive about as he still looks as though his best is ahead of him.

Hiruno d'Amour is a versatile performer who's established as a smart colt in Japan and he made a highly respectable debut in Europe when a short-neck second to Sarafina in the Prix Foy, just touched off without his rider going for everything. Can be expected to come on for that run given it was his first in four months, though his tendency to hang left is a worry in a race of this magnitude and he's likely to prove vulnerable if there's not much pace on (Group 1 winner over 2m).

Nakayama Festa put up a career-best when a head second to Workforce in the Arc last year and has once again used the Prix Foy as a prep for the main event. Although finishing last of four this year (second to Duncan last year), he had been off since picking up an injury in the Japan Cup last November and was entitled to need the run. It turned out to be a rather encouraging return, sticking to his task and giving way only inside the final furlong, but he will do well to perform as admirably in the Arc this time around after a less than ideal build-up.

So You Think is a top-class ex-Australian performer and has shown a similar level of form since moving to Ballydoyle, winning four of his five starts this year, including Group 1s in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (beat Campanologist 4½ lengths at the Curragh), Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (beat Workforce by ½ length) in July and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (beat Snow Fairy by half a length) in September. Has been kept to 10f this term but extra distance won't be a problem (finished third in last year's Melbourne Cup) and excellent chance of giving his trainer a second win in this race.

Sarafina brings a solid profile to the table having won six of her nine career starts, showing high-class form along the way and recording three wins at the highest level, including the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her penultimate start. Also ran very well when finishing third to Workforce in this event last year, picking up strongly despite being badly checked in the false straight and likely to have given the winner plenty to think about otherwise. Made a winning return from a break in the Prix Foy over this course-and-distance last time and looks a leading contender on her home patch.

Snow Fairy is a hold-up performer with a good turn of foot who enjoyed a great 3-y-o campaign, winning four Group 1s, namely the Oaks at Epsom(beat subsequently-disqualified Meeznah by neck), Irish Oaks at the Curragh (by 8 lengths), Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup at Kyoto (by 4 lengths from Meisho Beluga) and Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin (stormed home final 1f to beat Irian a neck). Yet to win from three starts this year, but showed she's at least as good as ever when pushing So You Think all the way in the Irish Champion last time, so shouldn't be overlooked.

Treasure Beach has been much improved this season, winning the Chester Vase on his reappearance before finishing second to Pour Moi in the Epsom Derby (beaten a head). He then went on to win the Irish Derby and the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington (in a faster time than stable mate Cape Blanco won the Arlington Million). His one disappointment this year has been over course and distance in the Grand Prix de Paris, when fourth behind Meandre and Reliable Man, but, if putting that race aside, his smart form this year would give him much more of a chance than his likely "third-string" status would suggest.

Meandre failed to win in four attempts as a juvenile but has progressed markedly in his second season, completing a hat-trick when landing the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance in July. However, there was a sense that things fell his way that day, ridden patiently in a strongly-run race, and he failed to confirm the form when second behind Reliable Man in the Prix Niel last time.

Masked Marvel has proven most progressive this year, winning three times including when putting up one of the best St Leger performances of recent times (bettered only by Conduit in the last 10 years) when running out a commanding winner over Brown Panther and Sea Moon. Connections have supplemented him for this, as the ground is unsuitable for the stable's intended runner Nathaniel, and the weight allowance he receives from the older horses would give him a huge chance if reproducing his Leger form.

Reliable Man won his first three starts, including the Prix du Jockey Club less than two months into his career (came from rear to beat Bubble Chic by three quarters of a length). Lost his unbeaten record to Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris but 12f had looked sure to suit eventually and he showed he hadn't given his true running that day by turning the tables pretty convincingly in the Prix Neil over this course and distance. Still relatively unexposed and has to come into the reckoning as long as the ground doesn't dry up too much.

Shareta has improved this season since contesting the Prix de Diane (won by Galikova) in June and progressed once more on her latest start when finishing third behind that same rival, with Testosterone splitting the pair. She has tasted success at listed and Group 3 level this season, but looks up against it in this company and stable have a more obvious contender in Sarafina.

Testosterone returned from a summer break with an improved effort when splitting Galikova and Shareta in the Prix Vermeille, having won at Group 2 and 3 level earlier in the season. Her effort behind Galikova suggested that she isn't up to that standard and looks out of her depth here even though she could have more improvement in her.

Danedream is the sole German representative, trained by Peter Schiergen. She has improved considerably as a 3-y-o, her best effort coming on her latest appearance at Baden-Baden when beating Night Magic by six lengths in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden. That performance showed she is among the best 3-y-o fillies in Europe and her connections were impressed enough to supplement her for this race. She is certainly an interesting addition, contributing a different aspect to the line-up, and there could be further improvement to come, although she will have to be at her best to triumph here.

Galikova is a half-sister to champion mare Goldikova. She has progressed steadily all year and carried that on with a ready success upped to 12f when winning her first Group 1 in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last time, shaping as if a more truly-run affair would have been in her favour. She's open to further improvement, but it takes a top-class 3-y-o filly to win an Arc and it remains to be seen whether Galikova is up to the task.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. So You Think
2. Sarafina
3. Workforce

Timeform Verdict: This looks a highly-competitive renewal of one of the most prestigious races in the world. So You Think has done little wrong since coming over from Australia, winning four times (including three Group 1s), and he looks the one to beat. Sarafina brings a solid profile to the race and was unlucky last year, while Workforce, who has been beaten on his latest two starts, finished much nearer in the King George than he did last season and should go close in his quest for back-to-back Arc wins.

Timeform Race Cards for Arc Sunday are available now at timeform.com