King George VI Chase: Top Trumps go above and beyond the Call of Duty

King George VI Chase / Jamie Lynch / 23 December 2011 / 1 Comments

Halifax, November 16

Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch thinks Gary Barlow may be vulnerable in the King George and puts forward the case for Justin Rose sneaking into the placings. Intrigued? Read on to find out what he's waffling on about this time.

And I thought we at Timeform were nature's biggest geeks...

I don't want to sound like a lad's lad here, because that couldn't be further from the truth, but me and a few other non-lads lads from work were out until 12:30am one midweek night last month. Take that, Frankie Cocozza. After beers and a curry, we were ambling back through Halifax town when we came across another group of similarly unlikely lads for the time of night.

It turned out that these men - and they were fully grown men - were mooching around awaiting a late-night delivery of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, like a pathetic version of those pathetic midnight queues we see on the news when the latest Harry Potter book comes out.

What is it with adults and video games? I don't want to sound like a 'when I was a lad' merchant, but when I was a lad, as opposed to the lad's lad I am now, it was a few board games and Top Trumps for Christmas. Top Trumps were the best, and they've stood the test of time, still going strong now in various forms, but not in the form of the King George...at least not until now.

Therefore, as a guide to the big race, Timeform is proud to present our version of King George Top Trumps, with a to-the-point lowdown on all eight runners. Maybe we are nature's biggest geeks after all.

Captain Chris - 177p
Strength: Superb in Arkle. Still an improver.
Weakness: Dodgy preparation. Dodgy stamina.
Kindred Celeb: Daniel Radcliffe. Took the lead role amongst his own novice group, but it's a different story against the established guard. Staying power?
% chance in KG: 7% Bit concerning that he landed on top of the last fence at Exeter, more concerning that he's skipped races since then. Negatives outweigh the positives this day. It's Chris-miss time.

Diamond Harry - 176
Strength: A barrel of class.
Weakness: The barrel is made of porcelain.
Kindred Celeb: Michael Owen. World at his feet at one stage. Spends most of his time at stables these days and no longer looked up to the top level on latest rare taste of action.
% chance in KG: 9% I hate it when people say 'I was at such and such', to make themselves sound like a player. Anyway, I was at Haydock, and Diamond Harry didn't look in any way backward to me. Timeform comment says: 'sometimes hangs/jumps left'. This his first ever go right-handed.

Golan Way - 160
Strength: Brave and enthusiastic...apart from that time he refused to race.
Weakness: Ability.
Kindred Celeb: Gregg Wallace. Likeable, good to watch in action, but basically out of his depth.
% chance in KG: 1% Ian Wood is flying on the all-weather lately, and a good job, as it must pinch a bit that his one-time 60-rated handicapper is now lining up in a King George. Leading this lot for a circuit and a half will take its toll on him.

Kauto Star - 189
Strength: Being Kauto Star.
Weakness: Being an 11-y-o Kauto Star, on the back of a huge effort. Kindred Celeb: Gary Barlow. Master of his craft, and proved lately that he's not past it after all.
% chance in KG: 18% I was at Haydock, and it was awesome, but it was also hard work - very hard - to break everything and find loads on top. I'll save for another week my theory that it was in fact Denman at Haydock, but suffice to say I'm worried that Kauto may be sapped of some strength, a la Punchestown after the Gold Cup. Watch the Betfair Chase again: it was savage stuff.


Long Run - 191
Strength: The Champion, just.
Weakness: The crown slipped a little at Haydock. Still liable to clatter a fence, maybe two.
Kindred Celeb: George Best. Massive talent but had a monkey on his back.
% chance in KG: 45% Knock a few percent off for some hairy leaps, but otherwise we're almost guaranteed a peak-form Long Run. Given the mood that the hard-fit Kauto was in at Haydock (where I was), Long Run did very well to hang onto his coattails for so long.

Master Minded - 184
Strength: Looks as good as any horse around on his day.
Weakness: Looks as good as any horse around on his day over 2m/2½m.
Kindred Celeb: Ricky Gervais. Always good, sometimes exceptional, now worried about him going a bit too far.
% chance in KG: 10% Odd to be talking of a horse like Master Minded as a bit-part player, but there's no other way around it, unless you think he'll relish three miles, which I don't.

Nacarat - 172
Strength: He's grey.
Weakness: Best days behind him.
Kindred Celeb: Ross Kemp. Has made the absolute most of what he's got, but pretty one-dimensional, cast as the intimidating hard man, and wear and tear starting to show.
% chance in KG: 2% Ideally needs two things: his own way in front and others to underperform. Unlikely to get either here.

Somersby- 177
Strength: Has a big engine, bigger than we've seen so far.
Weakness: Hasn't won the races he should.
Kindred Celeb: Justin Rose. Huge promise in his early days, has made it only to the periphery of the big time, but suspicion he'll do something special if and when he puts it all together. Mindset?
% chance in KG: 14% I bet this is his coming-of-age day. I'm literally betting this is his coming-age-day. A trip he's been crying out for, a track at which he's two from two, a strong pace to come off, and a softly softly ride to pick up the pieces.

There it is then, the King George sorted courtesy of Top Trumps. If, as predicted, a few of the bigger guns fail to fire on the day, then all the better for Somersby. He may not be able to win, but the Tarot Top Trump cards tell us that he's a good bet to place, as both the new trip and the likely run of the race will help Somersby deliver the performance and present I want for Christmas. It's a better present than Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3. Geeks.

Recommendation

Back Somersby for a place in the King George VI Chase at Kempton
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Timeform's Horses to Follow Extra Christmas edition is out now and features no less than five big-race previews and an interview with Philip Hobbs.

Comments (1)

1. Barry | 23 December 2011

   Jamie i always respect your opinion on these big races but Sommersby c'mon buddy. nothing points to him being placed in this high-class race. Sommersby has the weakest profile in the race aswell as the weakest jockey on board, sorry Jamie i usually take your advice but this time i am putting my money on Long Run with a small saver on Diamond Harry. Good Luck!