Betfair Official Blog

Kauto Star will be beaten in the Gold Cup: It's the Betfair Contrarian

Click here to view market

The Betfair Contrarian has never been one to shy away from a challenge, but when his sub-editor said "Kauto Star not to win the Gold Cup", the blood drained from his face and his legs went wobbly. Let's see how he got on in what must be his toughest assignment yet.

On February 18, the Guardian wrote "Sport at its finest is about heroic contest, the epic culmination of training and talent, proved in the fire of competition. But occasionally a champion emerges so gifted that the competition is reduced to a parade." The remark was about Kauto Star. It appeared, not on the racing pages, but in their leader column, such is the degree of national awe in which the horse is now held.

"Nimble, athletic and brilliant," echoed the Telegraph, on one of the few occasions the papers were able to resist comparing the horse to a movie star. Heroic and brilliant he may be, especially after last year's Gold Cup triumph, but he hasn't won this year's yet, and here are eight reasons why Kauto Star may yet struggle.

The signature clumsy plunge through the last fence

Most endearing yes, but a really ill-advised embellishment at the most crucial stage of a race, especially if you can feel a rival's nostrils on your haunches. On the occasion of last year's Gold Cup, online daily The First Post wrote "In the King George, in particular, a heinous mistake at the business end of the race led many to suggest that if he were to repeat the trick on Cheltenham's notoriously 'stiff' fences, he would either fall or lose sufficient momentum to fluff jumping's biggest prize."

The presence of a genuine rival in Denman

Denman may be more frequently compared to earthmoving equipment than the most handsome movie stars, but he's no slouch. Kauto Star's stable mate and next-door neighbour has been in sublime form and his own trainer believes Cheltenham is the best track for him.

Slightly dodgy leg

Bookmakers suspended betting on Kauto Star for the Gold Cup briefly after a run at Ascot earlier this year, over fears that he had sprained a fetlock or that infection was developing in one of his feet. Kauto Star missed a year's racing through injury when younger, and horse's legs are a fickle piece of kit. Ask any vet.

Slightly dodgy "adrenalin tap"

Writing in the Telegraph, Brough Scott says, "If Kauto Star's adrenalin tap switches on too early, the fences could be snatched at and the final hill could be beyond him."

The Gold Cup favourite doesn't always win

Seven of the previous eleven winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup have not been favourite to win at the off.

It's notoriously difficult to win the Gold Cup two years running

Kauto Star may have won comfortably last year, but since 1972, only the exceptional Best Mate has managed to win successive Gold Cups.

Heavy going could still put the kybosh on things

After last year's Gold Cup, the Independent wrote "...Paul Nicholls felt vindicated in his exasperation with those who had questioned whether the horse could crown an arduous winter here. "I tried not to listen," he said. "But I was amazed that everyone kept knocking him. The only thing I was dreading was running him in a bog, but I knew on this ground his class would tell."

Kauto Star's repeat victory in the King George VI Chase last Christmas is a poor omen

Over the last forty years, a number of famous and talented horses have won repeat victories in the George VI Chase, but failed to replicate success in the Gold Cup. Kicking King, The Fellow, Desert Orchid, Silver Buck and Captain Christy all won the George more than once but the Gold Cup just the one time. Two legends who did repeat at Cheltenham - Arkle and Best Mate - only tasted glory in the George VI once.