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Cheltenham Betting: How the Gold Cup will be run

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Jack Houghton discusses the pace and tactics with which he expects to see Kauto Star, Denman and the field to run the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Those looking for an in-running betting strategy in this year's Gold Cup would have taken note of pro-punter and part-owner of Denman, Harry Findlay, when he expressed doubts over Kauto Star's stamina.

He said: "Last year's Gold Cup was run on genuine fast ground. If you stopped the tape three out, everything had gone perfect for Kauto and he looked like a 1-10 shot, but was he that much more impressive from the second-last to the line than Denman has been?"

Perhaps not, but those concluding that Kauto is an in-running lay on this basis are mistaken. True, there is money to be made by identifying horses who travel well in races and find nothing. But there is no questioning Kauto's resolution and it would be difficult to doubt the stamina credentials of a course and distance winner.

He certainly didn't romp away up the hill last year, but chesting the last would have slowed him, and yet he was still able to mostly maintain his advantage over the placed horses. It's also worth remembering that between the last two fences, Kauto accelerated and put five lengths between him and the field in a very short space of time. The point is he'd already won the race. Remind yourself of Kauto's performance here. [link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HmKWY0lB4A]

In fact, it's hard to make any straightforward recommendation as to how in-running punters should approach the Gold Cup. Because just as Kauto is a capable and genuine stalker, Denman is an equally capable and genuine front-runner.

So perhaps here is the angle? Denman has never faced the depth of chasing talent that will line up on March 14th, and this includes a number of horses who like to race prominently. Will he be able to dominate them in the same way he has his previous opponents?

Some of the prominent racers are outsiders with little right to be in the field. Hopefully connections of the likes of Azulejo and Majadal (both currently available at 1000) will see sense and pick more suitable festival targets for their charges.

But even without such no-hopers, there are plenty - such as The Listener, Ollie Magern, Aces Four and Kicking King - who have raced prominently in the past and may find their best chance is to harass more likely winners into mistakes by putting them to the sword early.

More intriguing is the role to be played in the race by Neptune Collonges and Star De Mohaison. The latter is likely to by-pass Cheltenham, but the former is a presumed runner and provided much of the pace in last year's Gold Cup. While no one doubts the impartiality with which Nicholls will instruct the jockeys of his two big guns, it will take a significant detachment to give Neptune Collonges' pilot a similarly free-hand.

However, spending too much time contemplating who might take Denman on upfront is a diversion. Because to call Denman a front-runner is to do him a disservice. He is more versatile than that. There are plenty of horses who need to lead to perform at their best and, if taken on for that lead, invariably over-race and suffer in a race's latter stages.

And whilst it's true that Denman's best form has been returned when racing prominently - and often leading - he's been frequently taken on upfront and settled just fine. So anyone hoping for an over-racing Denman in the Gold Cup is likely to be disappointed.

So are there any in-running angles to be exploited? I don't think so. Unless Ruby Walsh or Sam Thomas make an horrendous miscalculation, they should hold the race between them. So on the day I'm likely to advise backing both horses at a combined price of around 1.28 [link to market]. Surely, 1-4 is massive value?

It's possible to envisage a scenario where Thomas goes too quick, or where Walsh locks-up in a duel with Denman too early, but this is unlikely.

So I expect the race to follow its script. Denman will be prominent throughout and will lead into the straight, where Kauto Star will close on him. What the final act holds is less clear.