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How much of a factor will Kauto Star's recent injury have on his Gold Cup chances?

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Our girl in the yard uses her own experience and knowledge to explain in detail how Kauto Star's injury came about and how it will affect preparations as he bids for a second Betfair Million

Paul Nicholls might tell the press that Kauto Star's hoof infection "will make no difference whatsoever to his preparation for the Gold Cup," but surely he can't be that confident?

As someone who deals with equine veterinary issues on a weekly basis, I find it curious that Nicholls can be so adamant that the injury scare surrounding Kauto Star after his victory in the Commercial First Ascot Chase - found to be an abscess in the horse's off-hind foot - won't be a problem in the run-up to the Gold Cup.

It's just that the vets I know rarely like to talk in such definite terms. As the joke goes, if there are ten types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't, then vets would be in the latter group. Their conversation is naturally conditional: there are no on or offs, they don't like to guarantee anything.

This is partly because of the nature of equine injury and illness. Recovery or otherwise depends on a number of factors, not all of them known and not all of them within human control. So vets can only really talk about "percentage likelihoods" - which is why Nicholls' bullishness is so surprising.

Kauto Star's problem is a common occurrence in any racing yard. Hooves become infected in a number of ways, but it's usually a piercing or crack in the hoof wall or sole that lets something alien in. Whatever the cause, the horse's body deals with the infection in the same way: by sending purulent fluid (pus), a protein-rich substance that is part of the body's immune response, to the infected area.

When pus gathers in a self-contained structure like the horse's foot, there is no way for it to escape, leading to an increased pressure and excruciating pain for the horse. That's why abscesses are so terrifying for anyone who works with racehorses: the horse can be in such pain that they present with sever lameness. The first time I had a horse with an abscess I thought it had broken its leg; such was the drama with which it limped around its box.

Sometimes the pus finds its own exit - often by bursting through the coronary band at the top of the foot - but more often a vet or farrier is required to cut a small hole near the source of the infection, allowing the pus to drain. Once this is done, provided the area is kept clean, it is unlikely to re-infect.

In this respect you can see why Nicholls is being so upbeat. It is a common occurrence, the treatment is simple and the prognosis, providing not too much of the hoof was cut away and the area is kept clean, is usually excellent.

However, there are few certainties with horses. And although unlikely, there could be something going on in Kauto Star's foot that caused the infection in the first place that is yet to be discovered.

It's a problem you could do without. Although Nicholls might liken it to "a human suffering with a tooth abscess," the reality is that humans don't run on their teeth, whereas horses do run on their hooves: half a tonne of muscle moving at 40mph on four glorified fingernails.

And Nicholls knows this. So no matter how confident he may appear, this is surely a front?

It is very unlikely there will be a reoccurrence - let's be clear on that - but trust me, Nicholls is bricking it. And as much as he might say that routines have not been interrupted, you can guarantee that a daily hoof inspection or two have been added to Kauto Star's routine that wouldn't have been there before. And every time that horse moves, you can be sure that someone is watching his back-end in the hope they see nothing untoward.

Nicholls' confidence must be a veneer - an incantation that demands acceptance from anyone who hears it. Mustn't it? And perhaps that's why he's so good at what he does. Because he has a single-minded determination that rejects any truth that does not take him where he wants to go.

So Kauto WON'T have any problems in the run-up to the Gold Cup and that's that.

Racing fans everywhere - myself included - are hoping he's right.