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Gold Cup Odds: What will split Kauto and Denman?

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Ian Dean takes a look at the ins-and-outs of the epic battle that lies in store in the Cheltenham Festival showpiece in a couple of weeks

Looking forward to pleasure may indeed be a pleasure all of its own, but there's a real sense jumps fans are going to be feeling sorry for themselves if the longed-for clash of the stablemates Kauto Star and Denman in next month's Cheltenham Gold Cup fails to deliver something special.

The great anticipation has been tempered by anxiety in recent weeks, as first Denman then Kauto dealt with their final prep race, coming through just about unscathed. In truth, both did so in exuberant fashion, comparable with a 3-0 friendly victory before jetting off for the World Cup Finals. Now it's game on.

Until Best Mate came along, it was notoriously difficult to defend a Gold Cup, but Kauto Star has worn the crown most assuredly this winter. Much was made of a visually-unimpressive return at Aintree behind Monet's Garden, but faultless displays in landing a second Betfair Chase, a second King George VI and Ascot's Commercial First Chase have soon consigned that ring-rusty display to history.

His superiority over Gold Cup second Exotic Dancer has been firmly reiterated, and Kauto Star has even ironed out the final-fence blunder that had become his trademark last season. It wouldn't be fanciful to suggest he carries an aura of invincibility with him these days.

Yet despite all this, despite being unbeaten at level weights over fences except when falling, is it possible Kauto Star remains at the head of the betting purely on account of jockey bookings?

And is Ruby Walsh's decision to ride Kauto Star based mainly on loyalty, on the notion that it would be plain daft to even consider getting off a Gold Cup winner? Not since Pitt swapped Aniston for Jolie has one man been presented with such a dilemma.

Walsh was aboard Denman at last year's Festival when emphatic winners of the Royal and SunAlliance Chase, a race somehow considered a graveyard for young horses despite throwing up Mr Mulligan, Florida Pearl, Looks Like Trouble, Trabolgan and now this fellow in the last decade or so.

However, it was Denman's jaw-dropping Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup romp back in November (when Walsh was absent through injury) that sealed his arrival at the very top of the game. Perhaps missing out on that occasion made Walsh's task easier, but subsequent dominant displays at Leopardstown and Newbury again have taken Denman's career tally to twelve wins from 13 starts, as well as bolstering his image as powerhouse.

Given the proximity of their current odds (Kauto [2.18], Denman [2.86]), there is every chance the market positions would be reversed if Walsh had elected to partner the young pretender. Denmania would be a runaway train right now, with Harry Findlay happily doing the tootin' of the whistle.

So what will split the pair? A short head (or nose) would be nice for the neutral, and Timeform expect it to be close, with Kauto Star rated 184 and Denman 179p (the 'p' denoting he remains open to improvement).

That being so, it's likely neither can afford the luxury of a bad mistake, but on recent evidence such would be an aberration rather than foreseeable. Neither is more prone than the other.

Some believe stamina will be the deciding factor. However, the idea that Denman has the greater reserves and will use them to grind Kauto Star into submission is a presumption at present.

Denman has hardly faced any more of a test of staying power than his stablemate has dealt with, and there isn't much in his pedigree of two-and-a-half milers to suggest as much. At least one noted observer remains convinced Denman will be the one running on empty up the hill.

One thing is for sure. With only three other horses currently figuring at less than [50.0] on Betfair's ante-post market, the shortest being Exotic Dancer at [21.0], there will be a muted reaction to anything other than a win for one of the Ditcheat pair. Unless, of course, the winner hails from across the Irish Sea.

There's something of a too-close-to-Cheltenham feel to this weekend's fare, though Newbury and Doncaster still boast £50,000+ pots.

Paul Nicholls again has prospects of getting his mitts on the booty, with his Grand National hope Mr Pointment lined up for a pre-Aintree clash with Cloudy Lane in Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase. Oliver Sherwood's lightly-raced Sprosser could upset the applecart, though, despite being well out of the weights.

Over at Newbury, Nicholls' Natal gets the chance to race off a career-low handicap mark in the Connaught Gold Cup, in which the two-and-a-half mile trip promises to be ideal following defeats over further and shorter. He can put those disappointments behind him at the expense of Maljimar.