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Don't go betting on a dry Cheltenham now...

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Simon Rowlands looks ahead long-term to the Festival and short-term to Kempton and Southwell...

The state of the going has long been regarded as one of the chief factors in determining the outcomes of horse races.

For my part, I regard its influence as being overstated a lot of the time. Along with other off-the-shelf excuses, such as the so-called Bounce Theory and occasionally the draw, it is all too easy to file a bad run under "ground" and not to consider the alternatives.

That's not to say that the ground is unimportant, however. Besides anything else, it has a major say in terms of the stamina required by the participants in a race.

There are not many horses I would put a line through entirely at the Cheltenham Festival if I knew the ground was going to be either good or heavy, but there are plenty I would fancy much more if I knew that the emphasis was going to be primarily on speed or on stamina respectively. Kauto Star in the Gold Cup if it is the former and Osana in the Champion Hurdle if it is the latter, for instance.

All of which begs the question: what can we expect the ground to be for the Cheltenham Festival?

The answer from many racing pundits would seem to be: "It never gets soft at Cheltenham these days, least of all in March." I'm not so sure.

True, the surface for the opening of the Cheltenham Festival has been softer than good probably only once in the six years since foot and mouth led to its abandonment in 2001 (when the ground had been expected to be either good to soft or soft), based on times rather than the notoriously unreliable official going reports.

But, in the same period 82% of the cards run at the course in January have been on ground softer than good, and fully 36% of them on officially (and probably in reality) heavy ground.

March is historically drier than January, but not to a huge degree. Despite this, in the last 10 years there have been four wet (more than 90mm rainfall) Januarys, three wet Februarys and three wet Aprils but not one wet March, according to Met Office statistics.

I am not Michael Fish, but there has to be a good chance that this is little more than a statistical blip.

I, for one, would not wish to assume that the ground will be good or firmer come the start of the Festival on March 11th. As David Brent, among others, has said "assume makes an ass of u and me". Indeed.

The ground seemed to be somewhere between good to soft and soft at Sandown on Saturday, when the highlight was the Grade 1 AIB Tolworth Hurdle for novices.

I can't say that I was especially impressed by the winner, Breedsbreeze, who had to be ridden out to account for Deep Purple in a time slower than recorded by the juvenile Five Dream half an hour later.

That was in part down to the run of the race - they probably went a bit faster than ideal in the Tolworth - and the weight differentials involved, but the comparison is not especially flattering even after allowances have been made.

Breedsbreeze is currently [15.0] for the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham on March 12th, when the return to a longer trip should help, but I'll be surprised if he manages more than a minor place in that.

Four Dream should be a valid contender for the Triumph Hurdle in what may not be a vintage year, but connections seem to think the ground won't be soft enough for him. I do hope they keep that option open for their promising youngster all the same.

If your idea of digging out a good bet is speculating on which of 20+ closely weighted horses will avoid the most trouble then this weekend's Pierse Hurdle at Leopardstown is made for you.

If, however, you prefer something less taxing, and quantum physics or finding a cure for cancer is not your thing, then there are plenty of other betting opportunities in the days ahead.

Angel Voices looks the one to beat in the 15:30 at Kempton on Wednesday, given that the in-form mare may well get to boss things in a small field, while I will be against last-time winners Dado Mush (has shot up the weights) and Hucking Heat (let in the back door last time) in the 14:40 at Southwell on Thursday.