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Cheltenham Trials: To go or not to go? That is the question!

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Go to the track or stay on Betfair ... that's the quandary facing Graham Cunningham ahead of a massively exciting day of jumps action

Once upon a time it would have been a complete no-brainer. But, to my eternal shame, I am toying with the idea of not going to Cheltenham for Festival Trials day this weekend.

As ever, it's about weighing plusses against drawbacks. Make the trip and there is the guarantee of a great atmosphere and the chance to get close to a string of high-class horses for a card which threw up a clutch of subsequent Festival winners 12 months ago.

But, the more I go racing since exchanges transformed the betting landscape, the more I feel I am operating with one hand tied tight behind my back.

Head for the track and you can ring Betfair straight from the paddock, of course, but the market is generally fully mature by then and the chances for exploiting in-running opportunities from the track are limited unless you have a mate prepared to hang on the other end of a phone line.

It's evens each of two, then. Drive 150 miles to witness a corking card in person or stay in the peace and comfort of the office to watch RUK with the added bonus of a fine card from Donny as backup? It could go down to the wire but, for better or worse, here are a few early thoughts on how my betting day is likely to shape up.

1.00. This opener will have to go some to match last year's renewal, in which Wichita Lineman beat Tidal Bay, Massini's Maguire and Osana. Aigle D'Or bolted up at Lingfield and the fact that Nicky Henderson runs him ahead of a raft of other promising novices has to be significant. Marleybow is held in very high regard by owner Graham Wylie, while Hold Em may well be over priced given his unfashionable connections.
Conclusion: Lay Marleybow.

1.35. Another leading fancy from the Henderson yard but Boomshakalaka might well be a value lay. Granted, he jumps well and races with zest, but he's up 9lb for winning an ordinary race at Kempton and the fact that Marcus Foley replaces Mick Fitz doesn't inspire. Something Wells, Glingerbank and French recruit Arturio provide stern opposition, while Mister Potter appeals as place lay material given that he shapes more and more like a long distance plodder.
Conclusion: Lay Boomshakalaka to win and Mister Potter to place.

2.10. New Little Bric is on a retrieval mission after his woeful run here last time but plainly has questions to answer. Nacarat looks more solid after bolting up on his British debut at Wincanton, while Patman du Charmil and Model Son all boast solid recent form. Private Be is one of several likely to ensure a searching gallop, and that will suit Maljimar ideally. This eight-year-old went firmly into the notebook with a fine effort here last autumn and the return to this trip looks an added plus.
Conclusion: Back Maljimar win and place.

2.40. No Exotic Dancer and, in the absence of last year's winner, this is wide open. Conditions will be crucial given there is only 8lb between top and bottom rated on Racing Post ratings, and if the ground is drying out as much as I suspect then a lay of thorough stayer Simon could pay off. Granted, he's tough and highly progressive, but he got outpaced before staying on strongly here last time and won't be able to afford a similar lapse in this better contest. Our Vic's King George second was a career best, but he hasn't always taken two quick races and Neptune Collonges looks the safer win option.
Conclusion: Lay Simon. Back Neptune Collonges

3.15. A rematch between the first three in Chepstow's Finale Hurdle, but will Franchoek confirm placings with Tatenen and Serabad? It's worth noting that the latter hails from a yard who have gone quiet of late. In-running players should expect him to travel sweetly for a long way all the same, but Tatenen looks the big threat to the Triumph Hurdle favourite again. He has two-and-a-half lengths to make up on Franchoek, but his jumping was impressive at Chepstow and it could be very close indeed between them this time around.
Conclusion: Back Tatenen win and place.

3.50. Another illustrious rematch, this time between last year's winner Blazing Bailey and dual World Hurdle hero Inglis Drever. Blazing Bailey meets Inglis Drever at levels after making the most of an 8lb allowance last year, while both horses line up in top form after impressive wins last time out. It's hard to escape the conclusion that the Betfair market has the pair about right, but there could be mileage in looking elsewhere for a wager. Millenium Royal can go well at a decent price if given a more positive ride than last time, but a place lay of Lough Derg appeals most. David Pipe's gelding is in the form of his life after two Graded wins at Ascot, but he had a very hard race last week and this is his toughest task of the season.
Conclusion: Lay Lough Derg for a place.

4.25. Plenty of interesting horses but, overall, this looks a hard one to get a handle on. Luxurix is very well regarded and looked firmly on the up by bolting up at Lingfield, while Sebastiano and Mickmacmagoole are both on top of their game. Sorry to plead the fifth, but if you are in front by this stage the best advice is to go off and celebrate. And if you are well behind you probably don't want any more advice from this quarter in any case!
Conclusion: Bar time!

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King has questions to answer before he returns to the Gold Cup throne

The film version of Return Of The King lasted about three hours before Frodo Baggins conquered Mount Doom to win the battle for Middle Earth.

The Gowran Park version of the same movie took just four-and-a-half minutes to reach its conclusion on Thursday, but Kicking King still has much to prove if he is to win a second Gold Cup fully three years after his first.

Granted, that raking stride which impressed so much on his way to the top is still intact. The willingness to wing a fence long and low also remains in place judged on some of his jumping, but those lauding the King on his return from over two years on the sidelines would also do well to consider a few harsh realities.

First, Tom Taaffe's hugely popular gelding was receiving 8lb from the winner Nickname. Second, the close third Newmill hadn't been in much form and is almost certainly flattered by his official mark of 161 nowadays. And last, but by no means least, the presence of Kauto Star and Denman means the 2008 Gold Cup promises to be a whole lot harder to win than the 2005 version.

In summary, it's great to see Kicking King back and, all being well, he will get another chance to stake his Gold Cup claim at Gowran on February 16.

But any sane handicapper would rate him as having to find 20lb improvement to have any chance of landing the big one again. Laying him for a place carries some risk given that the Gold Cup field might cut up considerably. All the same, it's tempting to take the chance given that two of the three places already look spoken for.

Ante-post punters' ups and downs continue as Festival approaches

Finally this week, how is your ante-post book shaping up?

It's been a turbulent week for some Betfair punters, starting with the hokey cokey horse Noland, who was in, out and back into the Arkle after some decidedly mixed messages between owner John Hales and trainer Paul Nicholls.

Wednesday brought news that Hobbs Hill and Sublimity were unlikely to take up big race engagements, while Thursday yielded another double whammy with the news that Gold Cup hope Exotic Dancer has met with a setback and exciting novice Glencove Marina is out for the season.

If nothing else, the last few days merely serve to ram home the fact that the first half of the jumps campaign is of only limited relevance compared to the last few crucial weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.

The next 48 hours will see a raft of changes in the ante-post markets as a series of major trials take shape, while the next six weeks will almost certainly see a few more high profile contenders ruled out by injury.

As ever, it will be a bumpy ride for some. But for those who read the tea leaves right, the rewards - and the trading opportunities - are as hard to resist as ever.