Cheltenham Tips / Graham Cunningham / 12 March 2009 / Leave a comment

This time last year it seemed so simple. Denman was the new hero and poised to dominate the Gold Cup scene for as long as he was healthy. Twelve months on Denman is under a cloud and Kauto Star is the hot favourite to become the first horse ever to reclaim the crown. His form is there for all to see, but Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham feels a live danger lurks within his own stable.

Faint heart ne'er won fair lady and nor does it get the job done on Gold Cup day.

Clearly, it would be the easiest thing in the world to tip Kauto Star to become the first horse to regain that small gold fruit bowl and the form of the favourite's imperious King George win was underlined in bold when Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes dominated Thursday's Ryanair Chase.

However, Kauto Star is no more and no less than the price he ought to be. Finding a horse capable of excelling at wild odds is the key here and I reckon Star de Mohaison might fit the bill.

Granted, he finished legless in a bog here in January, but his high-class novice form here and a corking effort off a mark of 155 in a big handicap in December shouldn't be underestimated given that he is trading at [30.0] and [8.8] in the win and place markets.

Turning your back on old friends is never easy - and it can prove costly when the friends in question have four legs and a tail - but the temptation to lay Denman for a place at under [3.0] in the Gold Cup is hard to ignore.

Turn the clock back to last year and Denman looked a world beater. But turn it back to Kempton last month and it was a case of Denman lite as the giant chestnut lumbered round in vain pursuit of the freewheeling Madison du Berlais.

Granted, going left-handed again should suit him much better and Paul Nicholls has been making much more upbeat noises of late.

However, Denman needs to have come a long way in a short time to become a viable Gold Cup contender. The eye will be drawn to him as soon as the flag falls. But the value lies in taking him on rather than backing him on this occasion.