Cheltenham Betting / Simon Rowlands / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Every Cheltenham Festival horses win at fancy ante-post prices, so why do some punters refuse to consider anything other than the favourite with their early bets? Simon Rowlands highlights a swathe of big-priced potential winners.

It can be difficult for a punter to have the mindset which allows that anything within reason can happen in a race, and that any of the horses contesting it can win. It may seem as if that [100.0] rag would need an act of God even to make a place, for all that experience teaches us that [100.0] shots do just that and even win more often than some clearly imagine.

I am sure I am not alone in approaching ante-post betting with a far more permissive attitude in such matters. The second coming of Arkle is favourite for the Gold Cup in March, you say? Well, it has nearly five months of obstacles to get over - such as staying sound, or even staying alive - before it takes on rivals that might have improved out of all recognition in the interim. Give me something at a bigger price!

It seems as if every year, at this time of year, punters cannot see beyond one or more horses for the big races at the Cheltenham Festival. Last year, Kauto Star was around the [3.0] mark for the Gold Cup; Twist Magic (remember him?) was not much bigger for the Champion Chase a few weeks on. In particular, past winners of the championship races get backed as if history has never happened.

In the last 14 years (leaving out the foot-and-mouth abandonment of 2001), only three Champion Hurdles, two World Hurdles, the same number of Gold Cups and just one Champion Chase have been won again by the horse who won the race in question the time before.

According to my back-of-the-fag-packet calculations, that makes it about [1.85] that none of Master Minded, Denman, Inglis Drever and Katchit will follow up, [2.78] that one of them does, [11.1] that two of them do, [100.0] that three of them do and [240.0] that all of them do, based on this precedent.

Ah, yes, but records are there to be broken, and I am more than ready to concede that Master Minded and Denman are outstanding champions in their fields, even if the other two arguably are not. Such things matter much more than do simplistic stats.

Nonetheless, would you really want to be siding with Master Minded at [2.28] for the Champion Chase, with Denman (who has had a recent health scare) at 3.3 for the Gold Cup, with Inglis Drever (entering the veteran stage) at 6.6 for the World Hurdle or with Katchit (who posted the second-worst Champion Hurdle-winning performance in those 14 years according to Timeform) at 8.4? No, nor me.

It may take misfortune to befall one or more of those at or near the head of the market, but what about Noland at [80.0] for the Champion Chase (if you think he is too slow, time how quickly he finished the race in Ireland on Saturday), and Roll Along and Air Force One at [80.0] and [44.0] for the Gold Cup (they are both rated in the high 150s by Timeform with the likelihood of further improvement)?

I am already involved with Sizing Europe at average odds of [13.3] in the Champion Hurdle, as mentioned previously, but what about the recent useful Irish Flat winner Solwhit at [95.0] for that race or for the World Hurdle? Solwhit has won two of his three races over hurdles and might have won all four of his races on the Flat but for bad luck in-running at the Curragh and a ride at Listowel that is most kindly described as "unenterprising". We may get an early chance to assess Solwhit back over timber, as he is entered at Naas on Saturday, just a week on from winning the valuable Leopardstown November Handicap in good style.

Either way, it is an absolute certainty that there are some good bets at big odds out there.

Now, all you have to do is find them!

* * *

It has been even more entertaining than usual of late to read Andrew Black's blog, in which he detailed his trip down under for the Melbourne Cup. The poor lad has not only had to contend with a dose of sunburn and jet lag but with being taken to a Rugby League game. My heart bleeds for him.

I made a rather shorter journey - from my bedroom to the living room - at 4am yesterday morning to watch "the race that stops a nation" on satellite TV. I had no financial interest but was rooting for the Europeans, and particularly for Septimus, but knew that one's fate a long way from home.

To borrow from Oscar Wilde, to screw up the judgement of pace once (in the Breeders' Cup) may be regarded as a misfortune; to do so twice looks like carelessness.

I hope the O'Brien team is not put off by the experience, as an already colossal event can only be enriched by its presence. I hope to put in an appearance - armed with an appropriate amount of sunscreen and a discovered taste for second-rate lager - before I grow much older.