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Cheltenham 2009: Examine 2008 closely before making your ante-post bets

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Look beyond the obvious when betting on next year's Festival, says Simon Rowlands

Cheltenham 2009 seems a very long way off. But, before leaving a magnificent 2007/8 season behind (there is the small matter of the Punchestown Festival at the end of the month first in any case), now does seem a good time to take stock of events in recent weeks and how they reflect on the ante-post markets that are already up.

The Champion Chase market is, rightly, dominated by Master Minded ([2.44]), who put up one of the best two-mile chasing performances in history when winning at this year's Festival by 19 lengths and 16 lengths in a very good time. Master Minded looked well-nigh unbeatable that day but got turned over at Aintree by the horse he had beaten at Cheltenham, Voy Por Ustedes.

It is easy to find a perfectly valid excuse - or possibly two - for this, as Master Minded simply seemed not to stay an extra half a mile and made a bad mistake two out to boot. The success of Voy Por Ustedes opens up the very real possibility that that one will be targeted at trips longer than two miles next term.

I am not especially interested in this season's novices at this stage, though Tidal Bay ([7.2]) was undoubtedly a good Arkle winner in fairly testing conditions (and could well be at his best at two-and-a-half miles otherwise).

Arguably the forgotten horse is Twist Magic pictured below ([17.0]), who ran out of stamina in testing conditions at Ascot and then went as if not right when sixth at Cheltenham. It's not so long ago that he beat Voy Por Ustedes readily by three lengths in the Tingle Creek Chase and figured at around the [3.0] mark (if my memory serves me correctly) for Cheltenham. A good-ground Cheltenham might see him in a much better light and, unlike some of the others, it's difficult to see him being trained for any other race.

The reigning Champion Hurdler Katchit is at the head of the market for the 2009 race at [7.4], but I find it difficult to believe that there won't be one or two too good for him 12 months on. The position of Binocular at [8.0] second favourite looks like an over-reaction to the horse's impressive success at Aintree. Captain Cee Bee ([17.0]) beat him on merit (though with stamina at more of a premium, admittedly) at Cheltenham.

There is no horse I would swap at this stage for Sizing Europe ([13.0]), who thrashed the Aintree Hurdle winner Al Eile, among others, in the Irish Champion at Leopardstown but went wrong after travelling best of all going to two out when favourite at Cheltenham. He bids to get his career back on track in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle on 25th April, and will surely remain over hurdles until a few more scores have been settled.

It would take an exceptional performance to depose the Denman who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup recently, but a lot of water will flow under the bridge between now and the 2009 running of that great race and I would rather lay at [2.46] than back at [2.42].

Racing fans can be far too unforgiving of the odd below-par run, including those with valid excuses, and Kauto Star seems over-priced at [7.8]. He is better than he showed at Cheltenham - we know that from the magnificent way in which he won the King George Chase at Kempton - and might well prove the point if we get another good-ground Festival. Doubts about his jumping, which have resurfaced recently, are factored into his price.

Inglis Drever has won three World Hurdles now and is as short as [6.0] to make it four in 2009, despite the fact that he will be in the veteran stage as a 10-year-old by then and that he underlined in defeat at Aintree just how vulnerable he is to even the semblance of a test of speed.

I would rather side with a horse trained in Britain or Ireland than France, when dealing with ante-post, which puts me off Kasbah Bliss at [6.4]. Perhaps the most interesting contender is Franchoek ([26.0]) from a decent crop of juveniles. It is difficult to believe that he will have the speed to be a genuine Champion Hurdle candidate, in which case connections will surely look to the alternative provided by the three-mile championship.

Doubtless the "stat" that "5-y-os have a bad record" in the World Hurdle will be trotted out numerous times in the next 11 months, but it is garbage. They have outperformed their representation by some way in terms of the percentage of rivals beaten, and, as we have seen a number of times recently, such crude analysis simply means that bigger odds are on offer about genuine contenders than would otherwise be the case.