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Cheltenham Betting: Can Tamarinbleu really win the Champion Chase?

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Simon Rowlands weighs up the abilities of Tamarinbleu, now considered by some to be a genuine contender for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

I turn my back for a couple of days and Ian Dean sneaks into my place and tips an 11/2 winner (Maljimar): will no-one rid me of this turbulent tipster?!

Good work from the man who headline-tipped Les Arcs to win at 50/1 ([80] on Betfair) in a certain national sports newspaper 18 months ago, but it means I am going to have to raise my game!

First, though, my recent absence in Paris - for pleasure and not, as some have suggested, because I was trying to flee the country on the back of a losing run which threatened to make it into the Guinness Book of Records - leaves me with a few things to catch up on.

There was, for instance, the big two-mile chase at Ascot, where Twist Magic was beaten at odds on by Tamarinbleu. Views on the merit of the winner's performance can truly be said to have been polarised.

On the one hand, there are those who refuse to believe that this "jumped-up handicapper" has become a credible Champion Chase contender and who remain convinced that everything else in the race ran deplorably. On the other, there is a rather smaller band that seems to want to take the race entirely at face value.

It's a tough one, but, as is often the case in life as well as in racing, the truth might well lie somewhere in between.

It should not, however, come as any great surprise that a horse who ran his rivals ragged to win a competitive handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 150 the time before showed himself to be capable of form in the 160s, though it would take some more explaining if that was the 170s instead.

Depending on your view of how good the likes of Twist Magic and Voy Por Ustedes are, a rating of, say, 165 to 170 is either good enough to win a Champion Chase at present or it is not. I think it is.

Twist Magic will probably be a tougher rival at Cheltenham on account of the slightly shorter trip and the possibly less testing ground, but it may not make a huge amount of difference. Tamarinbleu has shown that he does very well when blitzing from the front at Cheltenham already, and too much was made in some quarters of the surface at Ascot.

Compared with all other meetings at Ascot in the last 15 months, the times point to the going the other day being between soft and good to soft. The time of Tamarinbleu's win itself also compares very well with other races at the course and trip since the track reopened in 2006.

Similar ground may be needed for Tamarinbleu to win the Champion Chase at Cheltenham on 12th March, or maybe not. Either way, I do think that he was considerably overpriced at around 11 straight after the race and is still overpriced at [7.8] on Betfair now. I've laid off my other bets in the race and have gone "all in" (in terms of this race, anyway) on the David Pipe-trained horse.

I also could not fail to be impressed by the win of Sizing Europe in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. He didn't jump fluently and Lounaos arguably finished a bit too close for comfort, but when something looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is usually best to regard it as a feathered member of the Anatidae family. Sizing Europe is that duck, if you follow me.

That said, the horse is short enough at [3.55] on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle and I haven't given up hope by any means that Osana ([6.8]) will also come up trumps. Wherever Osana is, the forgotten horse Katchit ([15]) should not be far behind. No (further) bet for me at this stage.

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Contra Mundum put in some bionic sectionals when winning at Southwell on January 15th and has since confirmed the impression by rattling off a quick hat-trick. He goes again in the 14:50 at the track on Thursday but faces a much stiffer task off a mark fully 27lb higher than for that first win.

In the same race Hora has his third run inside a week having been racing at much longer trips and looked a bit soft last time. Either of these two could win, but they are likely to be short and I will be looking to lay them both and have the other five on my side.

Later on, in the 16:20, I reckon that Tenancy (second in a very fast race last time) will run better than most people expect. His stamina is slightly suspect, so the smart play may well be to back him pre-race with a view to laying some off in running.