Events / Paul Jacobs / 06 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Our long range punter takes an early look at the odds for the Cheltenham showpiece where old rivals Kauto Star and Denman are set to do battle again

"Imperial Commander has gone from strength to strength at the track and recorded his fifth course win in the 2m5f contest in March with an awesome display of jumping and galloping which left Voy Por Ustedes floundering back in second place."

We start the first of our long term ante-post columns by looking ahead to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a race dominated by English stables and more succinctly by the Paul Nicholls' yard in recent years,

We are indeed blessed to see old friends of the calibre of Kauto Star and Denman returning year after year to produce some of the most devastating displays of galloping and jumping in the history of the NH game.

It hardly takes a brain surgeon to assume these two stars of the lung bursting jumping crown will once again, fitness permitting, be hard to overhaul in the hierarchy of staying chasers.

The current champion will always have one factor very much more in his favour than his younger rival, the ground.

Ever since Cheltenham invested huge amounts of money into their drainage system the chances of a soft ground meeting at the Festival have become negligible.

At a top priced [3.15] Kauto Star looks just about the right price to retain his crown, but I would argue that the [2.2] about him winning his fourth King George is probably a better value bet with Kempton playing much more to his strengths of speed.

Those who want to be finickity can point to the fact that KS will be a 10-year-old next year and will have encountered the starter over 30 times. Being a French-bred he started off racing earlier than the average chaser and so it is common sense to assume his star will be in the wane that much sooner.

Denman is a top priced [7.4] for the Blue Riband event and despite being the same age as his stablemate has only raced 17 times having come from the fields of Ireland.

Many still maintain that his awesome victory in the 2008 Gold Cup bottomed him out and has forever left its mark, but this year's performance refutes that opinion.

Problem is you could only see him taking the scalp of his stablemate if Kauto goes rapidly downhill this year or if we get a very wet spell of weather at the beginning of March.

The bottom line is both horses will be hard to beat, but are not unbeatable and I fancy we will get a good run for our money with Cheltenham specialist Imperial Commander.

The Ryanair Chase winner has gone from strength to strength at the track and recorded his fifth course win in the 2m5f contest in March with an awesome display of jumping and galloping which left Voy Por Ustedes floundering back in second place.

As he matures and gets stronger this extended three mile trip should prove right up his street and with the prospect of good ground very much in his favour he could be of long range interest at around [48.0], nearly twice the price you can currently obtain with the fixed odds bookmakers.

Of the remainder at this stage the SunAlliance hero Cooldine needs to improve his fencing dramatically to take on the big boys, the same applies to World Hurdle winner Big Bucks, while Welsh National hero Notre Pere would only have claims on hock deep ground.

Tags: Cheltenham, Cheltenham Gold Cup, Denman, Imperial Commander, Kauto Star, Paul Nicholls, Ryanair Chase