In-Running Week: Betting tactics for four National Hunt horses

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 19 October 2011 / 1 Comments

There's usually plenty of drama when betting on National Hunt races

"As well as the three [1.01] trades Mad Moose has touched odds-on a further three times - [1.17], [1.36] and [1.62] - due to his inability to see out races at times. My betting approach would be back-to-lay, with an offer at deep odds-on to get the field winning you plenty."

Last weekend's Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham got the National Hunt 2011/2012 campaign up and running and provided some early season hurdlers and chasers to keep an eye on. Neil Munro focuses on the NH action and starts this week's column with a look at a horse that has managed to hit [1.01] three times in defeat...

Mad Moose
Nigel Twiston-Davies has trained the seven-year-old gelding throughout his career, and will know him better than anyone, thus he may have his own ideas about why Mad Moose has traded [1.01] three times in 17 defeats. For me, it can be summed up by the fact that he finds so much less than expected. The dual purpose son of Presenting is equally happy over hurdles or fences, and isn't averse to winning, having tasted victory five times in 22 runs with a win ratio of around 23%. But that figure should be so much higher. As well as the three [1.01] trades he has touched odds-on a further three times - [1.17], [1.36] and [1.62] - due to his inability to see out races at times. My betting approach would be back-to-lay, with an offer at deep odds-on to get the field winning you plenty.

Qulinton
There are many comparables between Qulinton and Mad Moose, except that he has no [1.01] trades on his in-running CV. He is another 7yo gelding that is equally at home over hurdles or fences. Trained by David Pipe, Qulinton has five wins from 22 runs, the same strike rate as Mad Moose, and again tends to find a little less than the in-running backers are drawn to expect. The big difference is I wouldn't be trading on Qulinton at odds-on in the run, I would be looking to get out a little higher. Back-to-lay, with an offer to lay double your stake at one quarter the BSP.

Buck Mulligan
Evan Williams' 6yo is a horse who does know how to win, but more importantly he travels well in races and tends to trade shorter in-running regularly. He is ultra consistent, having only been out of the places four times over hurdles and fences when campaigned between 2m4f and 3m2f. Buck Mulligan has traded half his BSP 12 times in eighteen defeats which gives you a good chance of getting your stake back most times he runs. Back-to-lay, laying out your stake at half BSP.

Chicago Grey
Winner at the Festival in March, Gordon Elliott's 8yo has a decent record at Cheltenham. He ran well again at the course just recently before making a mistake two out, unseating his rider when travelling well. He tends to catch the eye when moving with style wherever he runs and has traded odds-on eight times in 19 defeats. In six runs at Cheltenham Chicago Grey has won twice and has two trades at [1.12] and [1.26] in defeat. Back-to-lay, with an offer at deep odds-on to get the field winning you plenty.

Comments (1)

1. Carole | 19 October 2011

   Great to see you are back with a regular spot on TFR I look forward to hearing more! Thanks for these trades and also thanks especially for Qulinton as I kept thinking I don't have a horse that begins with Q in my database!!!!