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Think it's not important what distance your jockey is riding? Think again

In response to a reader-enquiry Wayne Bailey has made some startling distance discoveries. Read on...

In a previous life, yours truly spent a couple of years as a manager in a leading supermarket. In the end, I got tired of the stress, the demanding customers, and covering shifts for staff who always seemed to get sick when the racing and football was on (strange that!). I packed it in eventually, but that's not to say I did not learn skills that could be used later in life. One thing we were thought to learn by heart was this paradoxical phrase:

'If you're still conducting your business in the same manner in five years' time... then you wont be in business in five years' time!'

In other words, if you don't change and adapt you business to keep one step ahead, you'll go under. I firmly believe that the same mantra can be applied to horserace betting, and indeed all forms of gambling in general.

We must always keep our mind open to new ways of approaching our selection process. Some time back, I suggested to some racing friends that it's worth noting the distance that a jockey does well/poorly at over the years. Most sneered and were cynical. "So you wouldn't back a certain jockey if he rode in a 7f race, but you'd back him over one mile?" I was asked. The answer is complicated. I'm not saying you should never back a jockey if he's riding over a distance he performs poorly at historically, but surely it's worth considering at least?

Recently, a reader reminded me of this conversation (thanks Tom!), so I thought I'd look into it again. I had a chat with a couple of flat jockeys, and I felt somewhat vindicated when all confirmed that they have a preferred distance that they like to ride at. Some like the cut and thrust of a frantic short sprint, while others like to settle into a longer race, find their position and then pull the trigger. With this in mind, it was time to get to work and check which jockeys do well/poorly over various distances. I've looked at many stats over the years, but I was quite startled by my findings here. For example, did you know that Kerrin McEvoy wins nearly 20% of his mid-distance races and shows an amazing profit of £183 to £1 stakes? Compare that to Francisco Da Silva who has no wins from 135 rides over the same distance. An incredible disparity to say the least.

I'm not suggesting that you use the following stats as your only basis for selecting your horses, but it's another weapon in your armoury when you're trying to build up an overall picture of how the race will pan out. The same principle could possibly be used with trainers, but I'll get back to that at a later date. With the flat season already underway, I've had a look at five years of data for Britain and Ireland combined. I've compiled lists of the top five profitable, and least five profitable jockeys over various distances. The data covers both flat-turf and all-weather racing. The jockey must have had at least 75 races in the relevant category to be considered:

Sprints (5f to 7f)

Top five:

Kingscote, Richard - Bets: 526 , Wins: 71 , Profit to £1 stake: 89.35 , Strike-rate: 13.50%
Frost, Hadden - Bets: 117 , Wins: 17 , Profit to £1 stake: 58.05 , Strike-rate: 14.53%
Brown, Neil - Bets: 114 , Wins: 15 , Profit to £1 stake: 56.37 , Strike-rate: 13.16%
Murtagh, J - Bets: 1047 , Wins: 145 , Profit to £1 stake: 10.69 , Strike-rate: 13.85%
Hamblett, Ashley - Bets: 124 , Wins: 18 , Profit to £1 stake: 7.76 , Strike-rate: 14.52%

Bottom five:

Behan, J J - Bets: 79 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -66 , Strike-rate: 1.27%
Gray, S J - Bets: 89 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -82 , Strike-rate: 1.12%
O´Connor, W J - Bets: 107 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -86 , Strike-rate: 0.93%
Brisland, Robyn - Bets: 110 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -101 , Strike-rate: 0.91%
Manning, D - Bets: 83 , Wins: 0 , Profit to £1 stake: -83 , Strike-rate: 0%

Mid-distance (1m to 1m7f)

Top five:

McEvoy, Kerrin - Bets: 884 , Wins: 170 , Profit to £1 stake: 183.17 , Strike-rate: 19.23%
Milczarek, Kirsty - Bets: 295 , Wins: 41 , Profit to £1 stake: 134.82 , Strike-rate: 13.90%
Brotherton, Miss S - Bets: 104 , Wins: 14 , Profit to £1 stake: 4 , Strike-rate: 13.46%
Fairley, Greg - Bets: 672 , Wins: 99 , Profit to £1 stake: 3.6 , Strike-rate: 14.73%
Walker, Mr S - Bets: 143 , Wins: 21 , Profit to £1 stake: -3.35 , Strike-rate: 14.69%

Bottom five:

Quinn, Paul - Bets: 108 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -99 , Strike-rate: 0.93%
Manning, D - Bets: 121 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -112 , Strike-rate: 0.83%
Walsh, Joseph - Bets: 153 , Wins: 1 , Profit to £1 stake: -147 , Strike-rate: 0.65%
Bradley, P - Bets: 81 , Wins: 0 , Profit to £1 stake: -81 , Strike-rate: 0.00%
Silva, Francisco Da - Bets: 135 , Wins: 0 , Profit to £1 stake: -135 , Strike-rate: 0.00%

Long-distance (2m+)

Top five:

Winston, Robert - Bets: 140 , Wins: 23 , Profit to £1 stake: 58.76 , Strike-rate: 16.43%
Berry, F M - Bets: 88 , Wins: 20 , Profit to £1 stake: 40.88 , Strike-rate: 22.73%
Murtagh, J - Bets: 83 , Wins: 16 , Profit to £1 stake: 33.8 , Strike-rate: 19.28%
Dettori, L - Bets: 88 , Wins: 14 , Profit to £1 stake: -6.12 , Strike-rate: 15.91%
Kinane, M J - Bets: 81 , Wins: 14 , Profit to £1 stake: -14.87 , Strike-rate: 17.28%

Bottom five:

McKeown, Dean - Bets: 98 , Wins: 6 , Profit to £1 stake: -58 , Strike-rate: 6.12%
O´Shea, T P - Bets: 80 , Wins: 4 , Profit to £1 stake: -58.75 , Strike-rate: 5%
Smullen, P J - Bets: 96 , Wins: 4 , Profit to £1 stake: -77.17 , Strike-rate: 4.17%
Hughes, Richard - Bets: 94 , Wins: 3 , Profit to £1 stake: -71 , Strike-rate: 3.19%
Norton, Francis - Bets: 103 , Wins: 3 , Profit to £1 stake: -72.42 , Strike-rate: 2.91%

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