Betting Strategy / Editor / 17 February 2010 / Leave a comment

Paul Smith continues his weekly look at the all-weather horses to follow. Warning! This column contains a nap bet for Wednesday's racing

"I Confess gained his last win off a mark of 77, so there is some leeway off a mark of 68 and he is going to be given a couple more chances given he clearly isn’t in bad heart at present."

The 'sucker' horse. We all have one, don't we?. We try to keep away from them but sometimes it can't be helped. I Confess is mine. I can't help it, I make no apology for it, and although this 52-raced 5yo on a losing run of 21 isn't obvious material for one to follow, his latest third at Lingfield was a blinding effort and he is added to the list.

Despite helping force what looked a very strong early pace, he kept on really well despite being given limited assistance in the saddle from an inexperienced apprentice.

Four of the first five home were held up, one of them after missing the break badly, and Zerzura, who helped set the gallop, eventually finished last. I Confess gained his last win off a mark of 77, so there is some leeway off a mark of 68 and he is going to be given a couple more chances given he clearly isn't in bad heart at present.

The first of those chances comes up quickly with him declared for the 16:00 at Lingfield this afternoon. The excellent Andrew Heffernan takes off a handy 5lb and he looks worth an interest.

Another who looked to run a big race in similar circumstances was Thunderball, who tried to pinch a competitive event at Kempton under an enterprising ride. He was kicked clear in the straight but those exertions took their toll as he was collared by some patiently ridden closers late on. He did enough to suggest he could win off his current mark though and Jeremy Glover has done really well with the seemingly exposed horses he inherited from Alan McCabe.

The final addition this week is By Command, who was gaining his first success for Kevin Ryan when getting the better of perennial underachiever Kielty's Folly at Wolverhampton on Saturday night.

He wouldn't be the first horse to leave John Hills' stable and bounce back to form and given that he was rated 99 at one stage of his career, there is still something to work with despite his recent win.

He travelled particularly strongly at Wolverhampton - a trait that will continue to stand him in good stead against inferior opposition - and his trainer has done well with similar types in the past.

With three new additions to the list of horses to follow, there has been a cull this week and the likes of Baby Strange and Mr Mackatack, who clearly aren't being campaigned with the all-weather in mind, have been axed. I will endeavour to check if any of those taken off have been entered up, just in case they suddenly reappear on the radar.

As well as I Confess, Blues Music and Orangeleg both have entries this week. The former is in a 1m maiden at Lingfield on Saturday but although the trip will suit, it does look like it could be a warm maiden with a couple of powerful Newmarket stables represented at the five-day stage. Much will depend on the final make up of the race, but the stable had a maiden winner at the track last week and he is open to plenty of improvement.

Orangeleg looked a cut above the usual Class 6 fodder when winning at Lingfield in December and he would look of interest if taking his chance at Wolverhampton on Monday.
7f seems ideal for him and although he is due to tackle stronger opposition this time, he looks well worth following.

Sand Stormers NAP
I Confess 4.00 Lingfield (Wednesday)

Full list of horses to follow
Blues Music (eyecatching late headway on debut)
By Command (looks a likely money-spinner for Kevin Ryan)
Femme De Fer (5f, Polytrack)
Fen Spirit (weighted to win a handicap and worth a try at 5f)
Hint Of Honey (form worked out very well)
Hot Form (green on debut and raced hard against the rail)
I Confess (big effort at Lingfield behind Aflaam)
Im Ova Ere Dad (shaped really well on return from long break)
Jonny Mudball (will be very interesting if dropped to sprint trips)
Kuanyao (good effort from stall 1 last time, more to come on Polytrack)
Maid In Heaven (best of those held up on debut, clueless early)
Orangeleg (looks particularly well handicapped)
Prince Of Sorrento (still well treated and latest farce best ignored)
Residency (poor draw and went off too hard at Wolverhampton)
Restless Genius (overcame poor draw and pace bias at Southwell)
R Woody (5f, Southwell)
Short Supply (low-grade 10f+ handicaps will suit)
Smalljohn (thriving at present and did well when hassled for the lead last time)
Thunderball (had a bit too much use made of him behind King Olav)
Tiddliwinks (potentially Listed class over 6f)

Tags: Andrew Heffernan, Baby Strange, Blues Music, By Command, I Confess, Mr Mackatack, Orangeleg, Thunderball