Betting Strategy / Editor / 11 February 2010 / Leave a comment

The past week has seen a couple of expensive lessons for in-running traders. To stop you making the same mistakes again, Neil Munro to looks at the horses you shouldn't be laying at high odds during a race.

"Should you ever lay a McCoy mount at big prices during a race? For me the answer is simple: NO."

Last Thursday we saw 10-year-old Victory Quest win at Southwell for the 12th time in his career, returning an industry SP of 22/1. Nothing outstanding about that, you might say, but in-running he hit the ceiling price of [1000.00] on Betfair.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but horses with good course and distance records, especially at Southwell which is such a unique surface, should not be taken on in-running at big prices. Victory Quest has now won six times and been placed a further seven times over the 1m4f trip on the fibresand in just 26 starts. His record over the 2m trip is even better with six wins and three places in just 14 starts.

It's also worth noting that six of his career wins have come in February. So beware the horse with conditions to suit, even if he isn't travelling that well mid-race.

On Tuesday we saw the greatest jockey do what he does best. Never give up. A P McCoy treats a cold quiet Tuesday at Market Rasen the same as a beautiful sunny day at the Cheltenham Festival. He puts it all in, no matter what the ride, and did so in the opening contest, a juvenile novice hurdle on board Open Day, owned by J P McManus.

The four-year-old was sent off the 9/2 third favourite but looked to have no chance when being pushed along 3f out. As the television camera concentrated on the leaders he traded at [1000.00] but McCoy never knows when he and his mount are beaten. He stoked up the gelding, and despite being 10 lengths down at the last, flew home to win by two lengths. Looking back across the last few months he has also booted home winners who have traded at [170.00] and [210.00] in-running. So should you ever lay a McCoy mount at big prices during a race? Well for me the answer is simple - NO.

In Running Future Plays

Tatawor : Jim Boyle does well with his all-weather string but he may struggle to get a win out of Tatawor, who has some talent as well as his own ideas about the game. At Lingfield on Saturday over the 7f trip he travelled supremely well, causing his in-running price to trade at one third his starting price, before finding less than expected in the home straight. He has some other low trades on his in-running CV, including an odds-on defeat at the same track over 6f. He has since come out and disappointed at Kempton on Wednesday night. He is a horse I would be looking to lay in-running at short odds for the next few runs.

Always Bold : The five-year-old was seen last Friday when finishing 13 lengths behind Grand National hope Le Beau Bai in a competitive Class 2 handicap hurdle. This was a decent effort after two months off and he will be of interest next time out if dropped in class. His record over hurdles in Class 4 events is three wins and five places from nine starts and because of his inclination to run prominently I will be looking to back him pre-race and lay just my stake in-running at short odds. To give you some idea of what price, he has traded at [1.52]; [1.10]; [1.09]; [1.03] and [1.70] in-running before going on to be defeated.

Erinjay : Michael Wigham's four year old gelding didn't get to the racecourse until the back end of last year and thus is unexposed with only five career starts. He has two wins to his name, both over the Kempton mile. That was an apprentice race so he went to Wolverhampton over the extended 9f last Friday without a penalty. He has since run at Lingfield over what should have been the ideal mile trip, but reared at the start causing him to lose a number of lengths. He has been slowly away before so I would hold off backing him until he has got out of the stalls in a decent fashion when next seen over a mile. If connections choose to step him up in trip again, I will back him pre-race and then lay out double my stake at low odds in-running as I am not sure he gets home.

Wedding Dream: This three-year-old filly won two handicaps over the Southwell mile in December and January which saw the handicapper raise her 19lbs. She came out on Tuesday over the same course and distance running off a mark of 64 under Amy Ryan, where she disappointed finishing 15 lengths behind the eventual winner. I have a lot of time for Amy and have found her weight claim at times useful, but having watched the race again, it appears this filly needs a stronger ride. I will be looking to back her over the Southwell mile next time out if Franny Norton is back on board. As she travels in a prominent position, I would back her pre-race and lay off your stake in-running at shorter odds.

Tags: AP McCoy, Horseracing betting, horseracing betting strategy, Neil Munro, Southwell races, Timeform radio