Horse Racing Betting Strategy: Beating the handicapper
Betting Strategy 
/ Wayne Bailey / 02 January 2009 / 13 Comments
Shrewd trainers can get their horses to run off the 'wrong' mark - a strategy that can prove lucrative for backers, writes Wayne Bailey...
To the compete novice, handicaps are arguably the most difficult race type to figure out, and I still remember Grand National day 1988 as my late father tried his best to explain the concept to me; an enthusiastic seven-year-old with a pound note in my hand ready to pick a horse! In the end, he put it as simply as this: "Think of you and your friends having a race when cycling home from school. The guy with the best and fastest bike is obviously going to win. Therefore, if you put extra schoolbooks in his bag, the rest of you will have a chance too."
Unfortunately, I didn't pick Rhyme 'N' Reason that year - I had to wait until 1990 before finding Grand National glory with an each-way bet on Mr Frisk, a horse I probably picked because the trainer's name was Bailey!
OK, so the handicapping system is not quite as simple as above, but once one understands the concept, you can begin to tackle the races and try find the all important winners. If you're unfamiliar with how handicapping works, a site named UK Horse Racing have explained it very well here.
When watching a horse running twice in a short space of time last month, I was reminded of an old strategy that allows horses to run off a lower mark than they should, and wondered if it still proved profitable. The idea is quite simple really - when a horse wins a race, his official rating will usually be raised by a few pounds. But the handicappers only review the official ratings on a weekly basis, so straight after the win, certain trainers will quickly enter their horse in another handicap before his official rating has been reviewed - and therefore the horse can run off its old mark.
When this happens, the horse will carry a penalty. But the penalty is mandatory and is often very lenient compared to what the handicapper will add when he gets his hands on him. So the strategy is fairly straightforward - back horses that won last time out and are making a quick return to a handicap race.
The main problem with back-testing this, was trying to set a limit on how quick the horse's return to the racecourse should be. I finally settled on 1-3 days as I figured that the handicapper wouldn't have caught up with most of those horses yet.
While it is possible that some of the horses will have been given their revised mark within that period, that figure is not too big as most trainers don't bother with a quick handicap return unless they've a weight advantage. In the UK, the handicappers issue the new official ratings on Tuesdays, so watch out for what day the trainer enters the horse again.
I only focused on National Hunt racing since the flat season is still a number of months away. So then, the rules (for want of a better word) are:
• Race is a National Hunt handicap.
• Horse last ran 1-3 days ago, and won that race.
Had you backed each horse matching the above criteria since 2003, you would have had 80 winners from 202 bets (39.6%) and shown a profit of £663 to £10 stakes. I broke down the data by year to check for consistency, and all years showed a reasonable profit and strike-rate.
Interestingly, had you backed the horses each-way, you would show a profit of £878 to £10 stakes with 64% of horses placing. I'm not sure if the powers that be at Betfair have any plans to make place SPs widely accessible, but I wish they would as I'd love to test this out on Betfair's win and place markets and I'm fairly certain it would prove more lucrative than old style each-way betting. If anyone who looks after such matters is reading, please take note!
Something else that stood out was that hurdlers performed far better, winning nearly 44% of races compared to the chasers at just under 33%. If any readers have a theory as to why, make a post below. Of course, the usual health warnings apply and just because something was profitable in the past does not mean it will be forever - but I'm confident of getting a run for my money on this and will report back periodically on progress.
It's not rocket science, but it's a basic strategy that works and hopefully will continue to do so for a while yet. As my late father pointed out to me as a kid, sometimes the simple way of looking at things is the best way!
Comments (13)
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Gerald Simpson | 04 January 2009
Hello Wayne
A prosperous New Year to you.
Many years ago this was a going system but If I remember correctly in a slightly different formula.
As you say the official ratings are only altered once a week - on a Tuesday. So a horse that wins on a Tuesday has a maximum of seven days until it is re-rated. I think this was the formula
Tuesday winner has 7 day period till new rating
Wednesday winner has 6 day period till new rating
Thursday winner has a 5 day period till new rating
Friday winner has a 4 day period till new rating
Saturday winner has a 2 day period till new rating
Sunday winner has a 1 day winner till new rating
This offers a 1-7 period instead of the 1-3 period you suggest.
Would this have made a difference to your thinking?
regards
GDUBSUK
Gerald Simpson | 05 January 2009
Sorry I always thought that mathmatics was one of my strong suits - must be my age!
Correction
Saturday winner has a 3 day period till new rating
Sunday winner has a 2 day period till new rating
Monday winner has a 1 day period till new rating.
I have tried to locate this system amongst my old systems in my library but with no success. The reason I wanted to try and find it was because I seem to recall that the original figures were somewhat different but I cannot see why after all there are only 7 days in any week!
Gerald Simpson
Wayne Bailey | 06 January 2009
Hi Gerald, very interesting and I remember hearing something about that before.
It took some time but I've checked it out for you on the national hunt and it's very promising!
The criteria used were:
* Race is a UK National Hunt handicap
* Horse won last time out
Using your days formula, the results from 2003 to the present were as follows:
TUESDAY
Bets: 112
Wins: 34
Profit /loss to 1pt: -15.50
WEDNESDAY
Bets: 87
Wins: 32
Profit /loss to 1pt: +32.59
THURSDAY
Bets: 60
Wins: 22
Profit /loss to 1pt: +14.54
FRIDAY
Bets: 32
Wins: 20
Profit /loss to 1pt: +21.87
SATURDAY
Bets: 27
Wins: 6
Profit /loss to 1pt: -8.77
SUNDAY
Bets: 2
Wins: 0
Profit /loss to 1pt: -2
MONDAY
Bets: 1
Wins: 1
Profit /loss to 1pt: +0.62
If I've added it correctly then, that's an overall profit of just over 33 points. It's an oldie, but by the looks of it, still a goldie!
Thanks again for the input Gerald.
Gerald Simpson | 07 January 2009
Hello Wayne
Nice to hear from you. I wonder whether it works the same in all forms of racing - handicaps only of course.
I ask this because the All Weather is going through a good time at the moment using last time out winners. Where there is only one in the race and where more than one LTOW taking the forecast favourite. It also brings into play of course one of the favourite systems on the All Weather namely penalty carriers.
Several different systems but only one major factor that of last time out winner.
Wayne Bailey | 08 January 2009
Hi Gerald.
I've tried some other 'beat the handicapper' stuff on the AW and found it less reliable than National Hunt. (I haven't tried your number of days formula however).
My gut feeling is that AW is less reliable due to the lower class of race. I'm not too keen on low level handicaps and feel that they regularly throw up surprises, especially on the AW. But again, I haven't actually tested out the above on anything other than NH so don't let me put you off trying it.
Dave Nolan | 27 January 2009
Hello Wayne
This is me catching up after a few weeks off after Christmas.
I live in Australia now but used to be very keen on NH horses that backed up within 2-3 days and whilst I had no figures to prove profit or loss my gut feeling was that they did very well.Maybe you might think it worthwhile to look at sprint winners (5-6 furlongs including 2-Y-Olds)that back up over the same 2-3 day period.I think you might find these show a fair return too.
By the way how is your theory about following highly rated NH horses going this season?
regards
Dave Nolan
Wayne Bailey | 27 January 2009
Hi Dave, hope Australia is treating you well. Will check out those stats - thanks for that.
In the 2008/2009 season, the above strategy has had 11 winners from 36 bets. Had you put £10 on each, you would show a profit of £53.90 to industry SP. However, my own records show a profit of nearly £80 to Betfair prices.
Following the high rated NH horses has only had a small number of bets this season and is a small bit behind. However, come Cheltenham and Aintree etc, we should be able to up the ante.
Robert Ford | 20 February 2009
Hello Wayne,
Sorry to ask here, but comments in Irish Racing do not seem to be working.
Will Bellewstown racecourse be covered in the Betfair Education series. It seems to be the only one missing.
Wayne Bailey | 22 February 2009
Hi Robert,
The guys in education are responsible for uploading the articles I wrote about each Irish course. Not sure why it's not up yet. As far as I can see, two courses I profiled have not been put up - Bellewstown and Ballinrobe. I'm sure they'll be up shortly but for now, here's how they read. Hope this helps:
BALLINROBE
The county Mayo course opened its doors in 1921 and holds roughly ten meetings per year, mainly during summertime. It's an oval shaped right handed track, and is one mile and one furlong in length. Over the jumps, there are six fences in a circuit. The last two furlongs are downhill, so some NH stayers find the change of pace difficult and many don't perform well here. On the flat, speedy types traditionally perform well here and higher drawn horses appear to have an advantage.
Christy Roche is a trainer who performs well here and shows a win rate of 28% overall, but his hurdlers are particularly successful and have proved profitable to follow thus far. With a 20% win rate, Declan McDonogh has proven the most successful jockey at Ballinrobe in recent times. He's followed closely by Ruby Walsh and Pat Smullen, both of whom show win rates of 19% at this course.
Ballinrobe ranks in the bottom half of Irish courses for winning favourites. Flat favourites show a win rate of just over 28%, while National Hunt jollies are successful 33% of the time. Maiden hurdle favourites perform particularly well (47%) and have shown a small profit to level stakes if blindly backed over the past five years.
Course form is not hugely important at Ballinrobe. In fact, just 7.3% of previous course winners go on to score again on the flat, with that figure slightly lower for jumps at 7%
BELLEWSTOWN
What's seldom is wonderful, and racing only takes place at the county Meath course twice per year; early in July and also mid-August. The course hosts both flat and hurdle races but there's no racing over fences. The sharp left-handed course is one mile and one furlong in length and has an uphill finish of roughly three furlongs. There are five hurdles in a circuit. On the flat, there are no significant draw biases.
With a win rate of 29%, Willie Mullins trained horses must be noted here. Similarly, Dermot Weld has enjoyed plenty of success at Ballinrobe with a win rate of 28%. To date, both have proved profitable to follow. With a win rate of one in four, Ruby Walsh is the jockey to follow at Bellewstown.
Flat favourites have a decent win rate of over 33%, however the hurdlers that go off as favourite don't do so well with a strike rate of 27.5%. In non-handicap flat maidens, the favourite wins an impressive 43% of races and has shown a small profit if blindly backed thus far.
Course form is irrelevant here it seems - and at 6% on the flat, and 8% over jumps, Bellewstown ranks bottom of the table for previous course winners that go on to score again. Don't let a course win be a factor in your betting here.
Robert Ford | 22 February 2009
Hi Wayne,
Thank you - and very much appreciated.
The whole series has been most informative and a very enjoyable read.
Chris Gagie | 10 March 2009
Hello Wayne, in regard to the penalty carrier stats you have put forward for NH handicaps.
I was wondering what the results would be if restricted to geldings? I have read several times over the years that they 'eat up' better than their female counterparts, and are often more robust. Obviously this is based on averages, but should shed some light, one way or another.
Chris
Wayne Bailey | 10 March 2009
Hi Chris, thanks for the comments. Sounds like an interesting idea. I'm up to my eyes with Cheltenham right now, but I'll get back to you with those stats as soon as the festival ends.
Wayne Bailey | 21 March 2009
Hi Chris,
The system builder I used for the above doesn't allow the data to be broken down by sex unfortunately. I ran something similar on the massey site anyway:
* Race is a UK NH handicap
* Horse won last-time-out and is returning 1-5 days
It's not exactly the same but close enough to test your idea. Massey only allows you to select male or female so I couldn't click geldings etc, but males do perform slightly better at 39.4% compared to females at 37.9% (since 2004). However, the sample for females is much smaller obviously at 29 races. Both are profitable to follow.