Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 02 March 2010 / Leave a comment

They say that trainers are creatures of habit. If this is true, can we make some money from those habits? Wayne Bailey investigates...

“If the horse doesn’t have Enda Bolger’s name next to it in the Cross Country Chase, you can scratch it from the list with confidence.”

The Cross Country Chase - Enda Bolger

An obvious one to start off with and if you can't make money from this contest, you may pack in this game altogether! I was going to suggest backing the Irish horses only - but I could probably go as far as saying that if the horse doesn't have Enda Bolger's name next to it in the Cross Country Chase, you can scratch it from the list with confidence. Bolger is the absolute master at these races and has won four of the past five renewals. In 2009, he filled the top three places with Garde Champetre, L'Ami and Drombeag -while Heads Onthe Ground came home in fifth place.
For some reason, British punters often snub these races and even though it's officially a handicap, weight doesn't play much part as they trundle along for most of the race and then sprint home for the finish. Maybe it's the style of running that irks some - but I find these races quite straightforward from a punting point of view. This particular race is only coming into its sixth year but it's worth noting that 26 of the last 30 cross-country races at the course were won by a horse from the top five in the market so the backers shouldn't complain too much. From the early entries, it looks like Bolger has this sewn up again and you could do a lot worse than dutch Garde Champetre and L'Ami at an overall price of [1.90].


The Champion Bumper - Willie Mullins

Another 'Irish benefit' race, The Champion Bumper prizemoney has gone back across the Irish Sea no less than 14 times since the race was established in 1992. The 2008 winner Cousin Vinny has disappointed a little since, but the latest winner Dunguib (Philip Fenton) could be one of the most exciting National Hunt horses in years. Mullins has won this race six times in total - but out of his multiple entries in 2009, he could only manage fourth place with Quel Esprit. All that said, he's still the man to watch in the bumpers and the likes of Day Of A Lifetime and Up Ou That are expected to give a good account of themselves in 2010.



The Grade One Races - Various trainers

This isn't really a trainer angle as such although the top yards will feature among the winners list. It sounds simplistic, but it's worth sticking with the best, proven performers in the Grade One races and in particular, those rated 170 or higher. Since 2003, such horses have won 10 races from 28 and show a small profit to level stakes. If you want to narrow it down further, you could try backing horses rated 175 or higher which has produced five winners from ten races since 2003 and shown a profit of 1.5pts. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls was responsible for seven of those runners, including Kauto Star, Master Minded, Denman and Azertyuiop. You certainly won't get rich but you're guaranteed a good run for your money with Nicholls' team looking as strong as ever in 2010.


The Handicaps - Tom Taaffe and Ferdy Murphy

The Taaffe family have attained legendary status in Ireland and Tom's late father rode the peerless Arkle in his time as well as winning the Gold Cup as a trainer. Tom's Grandfather (also named Tom) trained Mr What to win the Grand National in 1958 so to say that the family are held in high esteem around these parts would be a gross understatement. Tom Taaffe often has a trick or two up his sleeve in the handicaps, and out of his 11 runners since 2003, 45% managed to place; often at nice double-figure prices. Had you backed the lot each-way, you'd show a profit of over 23 points. In 2009, he scored again with Ninetieth Minute (priced [17.76] on Betfair) while the previous year, his only handicap runner Finger Onthe Pulse came home in front at a price of [11.0]. Another trainer to note in the handicaps is Ferdy Murphy - although he did hit a blank last year with his seven runners. However he does have a 30% handicap place strike-rate at the Festival since 2003 and had you backed his horses each-way, you'd show a whopping profit of 111 points (although that does include Joes Edge at 50/1). Murphy's form hasn't set the world alight lately so I'll proceed with some caution if backing his horses at the Festival - but it's sufficient to say that his entries are always worth a second glance.

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Tags: Champion Bumper, Cheltenham Festival, Cross Country Chase, Enda Bolger, Ferdy Murphy, Paul Nicholls, Tom Taaffe, Wayne Bailey