The Big Match Tactical View: Czech Republic v Portugal

Czech Republic v Portugal, Thursday 19:45, BBC1.

Match odds: Czech Republic 6.25/1, Portugal 1.784/5, The Draw 3.613/5.

Euro 2012's first quarter-final is a match between two sides who lost their opening game. After Russia defeated the Czech Republic 4-1 and Portugal lost 1-0 to Germany, this seemed an improbable knockout stage tie - but both sides recovered impressively.

The teams are similar. Both lack an out-and-out goalscorer, and while Helder Postiga scored a fine goal against Denmark, Milan Baros has registered only one shot on target in the competition so far. Goals have come more readily from wide positions.

The sides also share a problem with a lack of an established number ten, assuming Tomas Rosicky isn't fit to start. His replacement, Daniel Kolar, is a significant step down, and while the Czechs have Jaroslav Plasil in the centre of midfield, he works in deeper positions. Portugal's Joao Moutinho does something similar - though he did creep forward effectively against Holland - and their most attacking midfielder, Raul Meireles, is more about energy and combativity.

Instead, I think this game will be decided on the flanks - to be more precise, down one flank. Portugal's greatest area of strength going forward is the left, with Cristiano Ronaldo cutting inside into goalscoring positions, and Fabio Coentrao overlapping energetically.

But it's also the area where they're weakest without the ball - Ronaldo doesn't track back effectively, which was particularly obvious when Denmark's Lars Jacobsen kept storming past him and eventually provided the cross for Denmark's equaliser. Indeed, all four of the goals Portugal have conceded at Euro 2012 have been from their left flank.

The Czechs seem the ideal side to exploit that weakness. Petr Jiracek started the tournament playing in the centre of midfield, but switched to the right wing for the second group game against Greece, and opened the scoring after just three minutes. He also scored the winner against Poland, and I'm surprised to see him available at around 20.019/1 to open the scoring.

Jiracek tends to move inside into the centre of the pitch, which opens up space for energetic right-back Theodor Gebre-Selassie to storm down the outside. Ronaldo probably won't track Gebre-Selassie back towards his own goal, which means right-sided holding midfielder Tomas Hubschman will be able to move across and cover. Portugal need to be very careful in that zone, but I think Ronaldo will be able to receive the goal in behind Gebre-Selassie, and Hubschman could be in danger of a booking.

On the other side, Vaclav Pilar will play higher up the pitch than Jiracek, looking to get the ball in behind the defence. Joao Pereira will have to play narrow against him while Nani will probably move back with David Limbersky, before trying to get past him on the break.

I'm not expecting much goal threat from either of the two strikers. Postiga does a decent job as the focal point of the side, but will probably be substituted after an around an hour, to make way for young Benfica forward Nelson Oliveira. Baros, meanwhile, draws fouls cleverly and his link-up play is decent, but he's not a threat inside the penalty box. Between them, they've only attempted five shots in the tournament, from their six combined games.

For an outside goalscorer, Czech defender Michal Kadlec takes penalties and has an excellent international goalscoring record - but there's only been one penalty given in the competition so far.

In the corners market, I'd expect Portugal to dominate because they play with more width, although their current price of around 1.42/5 isn't particularly attractive, especially as they might revert to a counter-attacking approach at some point.

Instead, I'll look to the cards market, where I think the Czechs will be in danger of bookings by stopping counter-attacks. I'll back them to get more bookings at around 2.111/10, partly because they committed the second-most fouls of any side in the group stage, 20.3 per game, just behind leaders Croatia on 20.7.

Recommended bets:
Jiracek to score first at 20.019/1
Czechs in Bookings Match Bet at 2.111/10