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Boxing Betting: Calzaghe can overcome formidable Hopkins defence

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Alex Steedman looks ahead to what could be a tactical battle, though that doesn't mean it will lack an edge. With Calzaghe "outside his comfort zone" on American soil, he faces one of his toughest challenges yet.

Bernard Hopkins' mischievously intended and carelessly worded "I'll never lose to a white boy" line, delivered off the cuff to rabid reporters at the Hatton/Mayweather event before Christmas, does have some relevance to our punting on the Calzaghe fight and particularly to how it might develop.

Certainly Hopkins treads a threadbare line between orchestrating every chosen word and simply opening his mouth and letting his belly rumble. But there is no doubt this was an attempt to unnerve Calzaghe and so to influence the nature of the fight itself. B-Hop conceded as much at a recent press conference; "I try to win the fight before the fight starts. Ali and Mike Tyson were best at it. It worked for me against Trinidad....Let's see what happens with Joe."

A similar tactic worked for Hopkins in his latest win over 'Winky' Wright when he riled his opponent with an unprovoked slap at the weigh-in. Wright, an awesome jabber with a crab like defence, fought with uncharacteristic aggression and paid the penalty through a gruelling points loss.

I don't honestly think Calzaghe will be suckered by such antics but it will be interesting to see how the Welshman reacts as the gamesmanship increases in the build up. Equally important, is how currently smokin' Joe behaves and performs out of his comfort zone. This will be Calzaghe's first fight in America, a rare foray outside Britain and a massive upheaval for the homeboy he is. Calzaghe is on speaking terms with pressure but this is something very different.

Is it possible that Calzaghe will be encouraged to fight outside himself? One thing is for sure, Calzaghe will have to make the fight, force the issue. Hopkins is the perceived Champion, on home turf and it is not in his nature or style to engage without surety of landing scoring punches. The Philadelphian hard man is, ironically, a defensive genius first and foremost. So the pattern of the fight seems set: Calzaghe looking to jab and move, Hopkins avoiding punches and countering; Calzaghe fighting at pace, Hopkins controlling the tempo. Psychology and gamesmanship, bluff and counter bluff, a battle royal of will, determination and bloody-mindedness. Right up Hopkins' street.

So we're in for the long haul, make sure you've a stock of drinks and snacks, and let the judges decide your fortune. Or perhaps the referee will play a part. Joe Cortez, perhaps patriotically bristled at the morons booing the American anthem before the Hatton/Mayweather fight, made an absolute horlicks of that one. He didn't cost Hatton the fight but he did affect his game plan one way and another. Cortez is in the seat again and there has been talk of Calzaghe's propensity to throw punches with the inside of the glove and therefore the possibility of points deducted for 'slapping.' I can only imagine the hiatus and repercussions should a fight of this magnitude be decided on such an issue. Let's not even go there.

Rather this will depend upon who can exert his will and fight plan over the other. Can Hopkins, fighting in spurts, outwit and outfight Calzaghe or will the currently irresistible Welshman simply be too fast and too good.

I just don't think we can judge Hopkins on recent performances with a view to how he might cope with Calzaghe, even allowing for the fact that he is on a hat-trick against southpaws. B-Hop was able to dominate recent victims Wright and Tarver who were both subdued by differing weight issues and his give and take tussles with a young, fresh Jermaine Taylor were against a guy who has struggled to dominate anybody, save one career high round v Kelly Pavlik. Otherwise, Hopkins' stand out performances have come against Hall of Famers Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad, both of whom he outsized.

Calzaghe is big enough, strong enough, fast enough and mentally tough enough to hold his own. And at [2.02] or thereabouts, Calzaghe is man enough to win on points.