NFL Tips: Mike Carlson says overs is week 12 value in Mile High City

New Orleans Saints players celebrate
The Saints go to Denver on Sunday

Last week was a good one for NFL expert Mike Carlson's tips so can he keep it going with another bet on Cleveland Browns in week 12? Find out where else our man's putting his money this weekend...

"I know Denver’s D is a good one, and I know teams run out of gas at altitude in the fourth quarter, and maybe the weather is pretty bad and will restrict offense. But 43.5 seems awfully few points for the Saints’ offense to put up, assuming the Bronco’s help them with 17-21 of their own..."


Value bet: Denver v New Orleans - Over 43.5 at 10/11

It was Thanksgiving yesterday and, among other things, I was giving thanks for getting back on track in Week 11.

The Browns delivered on our best bet by beating the Eagles by more than three, and also cooperated by keeping the total under 47. The Texans and Pats stayed under 49, which was my outside bet, while the Jets and Chargers went over 46. Although my value bet of Baltimore/Tennessee going under 47 was spoiled by the game going to overtime, I did recommend taking the Titans on the moneyline.

The Lions and Vikings let me down, but that's not unusual for the Lions, while the Vikes had their chances to put the game away against Dallas, but failed. On our Betfair NFL Only Bettor podcast, the best bet Kieran, John and I agreed on, the Saints laying 4.5 to Atlanta, also paid off, as did my best bet, the Rams and Bucs going over 47. This is what I call a good week.

Can it continue? Week 12 has already seen the Thanksgiving night game between the Steelers and Ravens postponed due to a Covid breakout in Baltimore. It's going to be worth checking carefully on who is eligible to play Sunday. As I write this, there is no line being offered, but the original over/under was 44.5 and I'd likely have gone under there. The latest news is that Lamar Jackson has tested positive for Covid, so I won't make any further predictions, because who knows what will happen before Sunday?

There may be no reason to change. The roller coaster is already headed downward again for the Cowboys, who were thrashed by Washington's D and Alex Smith, who seems to have lost the rust now, while the Lions gift-wrapped Matt Patricia with a likely departure in a lackluster performance against the Texans. Houston's turnaround may be for real, and next week's match with the Colts will be one to watch. This week things are as confusing as ever in this crazy season.

Browns' rush can ruffle Glennon

Best bet: Cleveland -6.5 at 10/11 at Jacksonville

The Browns were sloppily effective in bad weather against the Eagles, and now the disadvantage of going on the road may well be balanced by the advantage of relatively good weather. If not that, by the knowledge that Mike Glennon is going to quarterback the Jags. Sure Myles Garrett isn't playing, but the Browns' rush ought to be able to get to Glennon to give them an opportunity for turnovers and to let the Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt run game take the pressure off Baker Mayfield. As long as this stays under a TD I like it.

Saints' offense to pile on points in Denver

Value bet: Denver v New Orleans - Over 43.5 at 10/11

Yes, I know Vic Fangio and Denver's D is a good one, and I know teams run out of gas at altitude in the fourth quarter, and maybe the weather is pretty bad and will restrict offense (you can check the weather reports if you like). But 43.5 seems awfully few points for the Saints' offense to put up, assuming the Bronco's help them with 17-21 of their own, which is not really an outside shot. If you don't like going over, I'm going to be boring and suggest an under instead: Buffalo v Chargers under 52.5 at 10/11 is a pretty good line, against especially if it's wintry in Buffalo.

Panthers and Vikings to keep the score down

>Outside bet: Minnesota v Carolina - Under 51.5 at 10/11

I know Minnesota's D has been leaky against the pass, and their offense is Dalvin Cook running and Adam Thielen catching, but Carolina is not going to put up a ton of points against almost anyone, and their D is good enough to keep the Vikes down to 28 or so. I'm thinking 28-21 in this game, and I'll take that. I am very tempted to back the Giants as well, NYG (-6 at 10/11) at Cincinnati, again as long as it stays under a TD.

The Bengals are home dogs primarily because Brandon Allen is now their QB -- he's got limited experience but was with coach Zac Taylor in LA for two years, so he knows the system, as they say. It seems like Joe Judge has the Giants understanding what kind of a team he wants them to be, and understanding is the first step toward executing. I also like Seattle laying 4.5 at Philadelphia at 10/11, and maybe staying under 50 too.

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