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NFL Championship Games tips: Back Magic Mahomes & Niners defence to do the job

Paul Higham
27 January 2023
2 min read

Patrick Mahomes can overcome an ankle injury to lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl

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Paul Higham has his game picks and best Bet Builder selection for the two huge Conference Championship games on Sunday as four teams look to make it to Super Bowl LVII...

Mahomes ankle injury healing well as Chiefs host fifth AFC title game
Burrow & Bengals are 3-0 v Chiefs, winning by three points each time
The 49ers have won 12 straight to get here for a record 18th time
Eagles MVP hopeful Jalen Hurts leads all-round best team in the NFL
Back 18/1 Bet Builder on Arrowhead showdown

And then there were four...Just four teams remain in the hunt for the Super Bowl, three of them where here last year and the only one to miss out is the team that won it all!

We've got an AFC Championship rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, while the San Francisco 49ers are back in the NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

There's three of the best QBs in the league, and another young gun who may just be another, and these four would be in everyone' top five teams of the season, so there's no filler, there are no real underdogs and no fairytale teams coming from nowhere.

My mid-season pick the 49ers are now the outsiders of four given they're on the road in Philly, but make no mistake that all four of these can lift the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona.

Super Bowl LVII outright odds

9/4 Eagles
9/4 Bengals
5/2 Chiefs
3/1 49ers

Get the latest outright Super Bowl odds

There could be some late movement, but as it stands it's just the third time that neither Championship game has a team favoured by three points or more - showing just how close these games are.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Match Odds: 23/20 | 7/10
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Points Over/Under: 46.5

This one will not be for the feint hearted, because as well as being the two most well-rounded teams in the league they're also two of the toughest and hardest-hitting, playing in front of one of the toughest fanbases in America, so this could be brutal!

The 49ers own the league's best defence and are appearing in a record 18^th Conference Championship - winning 12 of their last 17 - but they bring with them their rookie QB Brock Purdy to face the sack masters of the Eagles defence.

Bet Builder: McCaffrey TD, Samuel +21.5 rush yards, Kittle +3.5 recs, Sanders +5.5 rec yards

12/1

Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender on the other side in an attack with tremendous balance, as they ran all over the Giants last week, Hurts is arguably the best running QB in the league but he also has AJ Brown and Davonta Smith as two of the best receivers in the NFL.

In response, Kyle Shanahan has some wizardry on offence with a diverse and confusing running game utilising Christian McCaffrey - a rare big-name trade in mid-season which has worked superbly as San Fran arrive on a 12-game winning run.

Of course the NFC's top two leaders in sacks square off in the NFC Championship @nbsmallerbear | @Haason7Reddick

: #SFvsPHI -- Sunday 3pm ET on FOX
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/fK7vaWiHIa pic.twitter.com/Mco10AwBx7
-- NFL (@NFL) January 27, 2023

Deebo Samuel provides an X-Factor whenever he gets the ball, while George Kittle is not far behind Travis Kelce in terms of tight ends that look impossible to cover at times.

Five straight Philly play-off games have gone under the points total, and considering the two defences on show here and what a grind it was against Dallas last week then that run could well continue.

This will be a close call, Purdy's struggled against elite pass rushers, but Shanahan will ensure the ball gets out of his hands quickly and into the hands of playmakers McCaffrey and Samuel, while Hurts will have to do a lot himself as the Niners will key-in on stopping that run game.

Philly have a deeper roster, a better QB and home field advantage so are rightly favourites, but favourites are only 5-5 in the last 10 Conference Championship games and teams on 12-game winning streaks have prevailed three out of the last four times they've been in this game.

Never underestimate the confidence a long winning run can bring, and if the Niners get ahead early then I can see them getting the job done so will plump for the visitors to get back to the Super Bowl and rookie Purdy to make NFL history.

Bet: Back the 49ers to beat the Eagles

6/5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Match Odds: Evens | 5/6
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Points Over/Under: 48

The Chiefs have been favourites in a record 14 straight play-off games, and they'll extend that to 15 as long as Patrick Mahomes has no setbacks ahead of the game.

He's been a home underdog just once in his career, but he looked like going off that way due to that high ankle sprain he picked up last week leading to money coming in for Cincy.

We did have the first home underdog at this stage since the 2017 Eagles (both Philly and the previous home dogs Denver won the game outright) but positive practice updates on Mahomes saw the Chiefs regain favouritism - but only just!

It's basically a 50-50 game with Mahomes' injury offset by the Chiefs being at home, but Joe Burrow was brilliant as the Bengals dominated in Buffalo last week, he's 3-0 against Mahomes and Cincy of course won this game at Arrowhead last year.

Bet Builder: Over 48pts, Kelce & Hurst TDs, Burrow +17.5 rush yards

18/1

There's also a lot of pressure on the Chiefs, with this a record fifth straight home Conference Championship they're 2-2 with just one Super Bowl win from those two wins. This streak puts them in dynasty territory but they'll need another Lombardi to justify that status.

Mahomes of course will be key - he's an unorthodox thrower anyway so mechanics won't be a problem but he's a shifty runner also and that's bound to be limited, and the Bengals will be coming after him all night to test out his mobility.

The Bengals' notorious offensive line showed up big time in Buffalo despite a few back-ups in there, but the Chiefs and Chris Jones will generate more pressure this week so that's again a key battle - Burrow made so many plays in this game last year by wriggling free of the pass rush that KC will definitely have a plan to contain him.

Cincy have already limited Mahomes to his lowest completion total of the season, even when he was healthy, so they obviously have a way of slowing him down, but in Travis Kelce he has a man who just can't be covered right now.

Kelce had 14 catches last week and is just one TD reception behind Rob Gronkowski in second on the all-time standings - and despite being 10/11 it's almost unthinkable that he doesn't score again here.

Mahomes has other weapons to help him out too, Isiah Pacheco is an angry runner and Jerick McKinnon is a fine pass-catching running back who was a touchdown machine down the stretch - 8/5 on him scoring again is worth looking at.

Ja'Marr Chase is also 10/11 to score and like Kelce also looks unstoppable at times, but with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, Burrow does have great options - and with tight end Hayden Hurst scoring last week don't be surprised if he pops up again with a TD at 3/1.

This really is a coin flip of a game, that will be decided by just a play here and there and maybe go all the way to overtime again, but since I've got to pick a winner I'll just give the edge to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Bengals-Chiefs in Week 13 came right down to the wire.

Another classic between these two on the way? @NewEraCap

: #CINvsKC -- Sunday 6:30pm ET on CBS
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/fK7vaWiHIa pic.twitter.com/54rG3AbUtk
-- NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2023

The Bengals have won three straight against KC and all of them by three points, but against this QB and this head coach Andy Reid I just don't see them making it 4-0 even though they're well capable.

Mahomes has thrown more TDs from the pocket than anyone this season, and with Reid's play-calling excellence and a run game that's improved down the stretch they can more than make up for his lack of mobility.

We'll take the Chiefs to win a thriller and get ready for what quite possibly could be round three in next year's play-offs!

Bet: Chiefs to beat the Bengals

5/6

***

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