Wimbledon Men's Singles Post-Draw Tips: Djokovic shortens with Federer looking like poor value

Swiss Tennis Player Roger Federer
Roger Federer looks short-priced in quarter four...

The draw for Wimbledon 2021 took place on Friday, and following this, Novak Djokovic has shortened further at the top of the market. Dan Weston looks at whether there is any outright value...

"With Grigor Dimitrov, Hubert Hurkacz, Sam Querrey and Lorenzo Sonego also floating in quarter four, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if one of Federer or Medvedev didn’t emerge victorious from the quarter."

Djokovic with further market support after the draw

Djokovic has shortened around 10 ticks in the outright market after Friday morning's draw, and the world number one is now standing at 1.804/5 to win the tournament in two week's time. For those who might be unaware, this market price implies that the consensus is that Djokovic has around a 55% chance of winning the tournament, with the remaining 45% being distributed among the other 127 players in the field.

If being odds-on in a 128 runner race doesn't illustrate the dominance that Djokovic is likely to have over the other players at Wimbledon across the next fortnight, I'm not sure what will. When you also consider that the next five players - Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Federer, Berrettini and Zverev - have an implied chance of around 35% between them to be celebrating in two weeks time, the other 122 players have around a 10% chance combined.

This top-heavy market dynamic is the complete opposite to the women's tournament, where 30 or so players can legitimately consider themselves realistic contenders for the title, but also forms an obviously huge consideration towards any outright positions.

Rublev and Sinner drift after being drawn in Djokovic's bracket

As world number one, Djokovic tops the draw in the first quarter and simply because of that, it's going to be a huge task for any player in that bracket to win the quarter. This is why the likes of Andrey Rublev 85.084/1 has drifted in the outrights, and the same is the case for Jannik Sinner, who is now at 180.0179/1.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is a solid favourite to come through quarter two, although does face competent probable opposition in the opening few rounds, and could well be tested by the likes of Dan Evans, Alex De Minaur, Denis Shapovalov or Roberto Bautista-Agut later on in the bracket, but a seeded semi-final with Djokovic means that he is potentially going to be a pre-match underdog in both a potential semi-final and subsequent final.

Berrettini preferred to Zverev to win quarter three

The latter two quarters are pretty competitive without a heavy favourite to emerge victorious from the bracket. Quarter three features Queen's Club winner Matteo Berrettini, who is a player I think has a lot of upside on grass, with his superb service numbers. I prefer the Italian to Alexander Zverev in this bracket based on my analysis, and so does the market, with the Italian 16.5 in the outright market compared to 30.029/1 on Zverev.

Berrettini has what looks like a straightforward couple of matches to get his tournament underway, but a big-serving clash with John Isner potentially awaits in round three, and that could be a variance-heavy encounter with plenty of tight sets and tiebreaks.

Federer vulnerable in quarter four

Finally, in quarter four, Roger Federer has a really tough opener against a very strong grass-courter in Adrian Mannarino - one of the toughest round one unseeded opponents he could have drawn - and he could face Richard Gasquet in round two as well in a battle of veterans. Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the bracket, and he's got a few tricky early rounds as well, against the likes of Jan-Lennard Struff and Marin Cilic.

With Grigor Dimitrov, Hubert Hurkacz, Sam Querrey and Lorenzo Sonego also floating in quarter four, it wouldn't be a surprise at all if one of Federer or Medvedev didn't emerge victorious from the quarter. In fact, if Federer was a bit shorter than the 3.259/4 currently to win the bracket, a lay of the Swiss legend given his uninspiring form this year and lack of match activity could be considered.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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