ATP Wimbledon Post-Draw Tips: Hurkacz with great chance of coming through Quarter Two

Dan Weston
25 June 2022
3:00 min read

Hubert Hurkacz looks the standout value to win quarter two...

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Following yesterday's draw, we now know the pathways for each player at Wimbledon to reach the final. Dan Weston returns with his post-draw thoughts...

"On grass, I think Hurkacz’s ceiling is markedly higher than any other player in the bracket."

Back Hubert Hurkacz at 3.02/1 to win Quarter Two

Djokovic with gift of a draw

Novak Djokovic could barely have hand-picked a better draw for himself, with the top seed and 1.9420/21 pre-tournament favourite having Carlos Alcaraz - a sum total of two grass court matches played in his entire career - with him as the main seed in the first quarter and then getting Casper Ruud as the main seed in quarter two.

In my view, it's actually pretty surprising that the Serb hasn't received market support following the draw. While I thought his pre-draw price, at a similar level to the current market line, was pretty short, it would be a real shock if he didn't at least make the semi-finals.

He could have picked up the likes of Nick Kyrgios or Marin Cilic in his bracket, but both are in the bottom half of the draw, so can only meet them in the final.

Hurkacz value favourite to get through quarter two

Ruud's presence in quarter two, however, does lead itself to opportunities in that bracket. He's won two career matches on grass on the main tour, so a big display at SW19 is unexpected despite his lofty ranking. There's a lack of overall quality in that quarter two, with the likes of Cameron Norrie and Grigor Dimitrov having some chance of a strong run into week two.

For me, though, this really does open the door to Hubert Hurkacz to get through the quarter.

The Pole is favourite to win quarter two, with the Sportsbook giving a market-leading 2/1 on that prospect, and I think that's a decent line, particularly given the relatively easy opening few rounds which he is likely to face.

On grass, I think Hurkacz's ceiling is markedly higher than any other player in the bracket.

He won the Halle warm-up event, with excellent wins over Daniil Medvedev, Nick Kyrgios and Felix Auger-Aliassime, among others, and reached the semi-final here last year, with wins over Medvedev again, plus a demolition of Roger Federer.

Cilic capable of testing Nadal

Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Matteo Berrettini looks the justified favourite to come through the bracket - he's the second favourite to win the tournament at 7.26/1 - although the likes of Alex De Minaur, Kyrgios, Roberto Bautista-Agut, and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have something to say in what looks like a super-competitive quarter.

The latter two are currently meeting in the final of Mallorca.

Finally, Rafa Nadal is the second seed for the event and is 10.09/1 via the Exchange to lift the trophy.

I must admit, I'm not a buyer of that price, given injury issues and a lack of success in this event over the last decade. In fact, I'm not even convinced that Nadal should be a strong favourite for the fourth quarter with Marin Cilic showing a high recent level of late, particularly at the French Open, and having historical pedigree on grass.

Anyone tempted with Cilic to win Q4 can avail themselves of the 11/2 at The Sportsbook, which looks better value than the 6/4 on the King of Clay.