ATP Wimbledon Singles Final: Underdog Kyrgios should at least win a set

Kyrgios bigger-priced than previous career meetings

Nick Kyrgios attempts to make history on Sunday by winning the first Grand Slam title of his career, but standing in his way is the pre-tournament favourite and top seed, Novak Djokovic.

The Serb is 1.282/7 to lift the trophy on Sunday evening, with Kyrgios the 4.47/2 underdog.

The duo haven't met since 2017, and have never played on grass, but it's interesting to see that in those two meetings, Kyrgios won both in straight sets and was a shorter pre-match price than here on both occasions.

Given the level which Kyrgios has shown over the last two weeks, that looks a little strange at first glance.

Competitive match likely

Kyrgios has relied on his strong serve and ability to save break points as the cornerstone of his run to the final - he's held serve 94% of the time in the tournament so far, which is 5% ahead of Djokovic, who stands at 89%.

Interestingly, though, Djokovic has won more service points, showing quite how out of line Kyrgios' ability to save break points has been - is he a man for the big occasion, or simply the beneficiary of variance? We might find out tomorrow.

My numbers, though, do have Kyrgios' price more in line with those previous career meetings, as opposed to the current market line.

He's a justified underdog, for sure, but Djokovic has dropped sets in all of his last three matches and in fact has only won two matches in straight-sets so far.

Kyrgios' strong serve should give him the opportunity to reach at least tiebreaks, so I'd be surprised if this ended up done in three sets.

Over 3.5 sets can be considered

Based on how the tournament has gone so far, and considering Kyrgios' strong serve, considering over 3.5 sets on the set over/under market looks to be a fair shout, with that being available at 4/7 on the Sportsbook - or at a bigger price, Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set, which is 11/10 via the Sportsbook.

This match should be a fitting finale to what has been a superb tournament with numerous talking points, and it would be great if both players could put on a display and create a top-class final.