Wimbledon Betting: Get Tsonga, Berdych and Cilic on your side

Tsonga beat Federer last year and has the game to take out one of the big favourites again

"Berdych is my other outsider worth following, as we know he can beat Djokovic and Federer here at Wimbledon and he’ll probably have to beat both to make the final for the second time."

Sean Calvert is giving the three favourites a miss and downright snubbing Andy Murray. Here are the bigger-priced players you should include in your portfolio.

The Pimm's is on ice, Great Britain flags are at the ready and folks are planning their overnight camping on the streets of SW19. It can only mean one thing - it's the tennis season again.

The sport moves into public perception for a couple of weeks on the lawns of the All England Club and everyone asks me whether Andy Murray can win it this year?

So, let's start with Murray's chances of landing a first Grand Slam title on home soil and on first glance the draw hasn't been that kind to him. Or has it?

A first round against Nikolay Davydenko may have been tough five years ago on a hard court, but the Russian has always been poor on grass, even when he was at his peak. Now it should be a breeze for the Scot.

As should the next round against probably Ivo Karlovic, who at 33-years-old is another who is on the slide and has little to offer other than that huge serve.

The third round will be Murray's first test against either Kevin Anderson, Marcos Baghdatis or Grigor Dimitrov, but you would expect him to prevail to a last 16 clash with probably either Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic.

That could be a tricky encounter, with Queen's champion Cilic a dark horse to win that quarter at a tasty price of around 18.017/1.

Should he prevail against that lot and then win a quarter final he'll probably face Rafa Nadal, so there's no real point in continuing along this route, as he won't beat a fit Rafa in a Grand Slam semi final.

If I were Murray, I'd be pleased about the draw, as it lessens expectations on him and who knows, if Rafa loses early then he has a shot, but 14.013/1 is too short for a man out of form, possibly still carrying an injury and working with a coach who seems to have regressed his game rather than improved it.

Rafa's main test should come in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarters, although a third round clash with Tommy Haas or Philipp Kohlschreiber could prove interesting.

If Tommy wasn't 34 and injury prone he'd be on the shortlist this fortnight and at 29.028/1 to win the fourth quarter, well, I've seen worse bets at that price.

Tsonga is surely the best outside bet of the tournament at around 44.043/1 even with a slightly injured finger. I can't imagine for one moment that a first round against the decrepit Lleyton Hewitt will concern him and he'll enjoy a re-match with Stan Wawrinka on grass.

If he's fit and in-form he can take Nadal out in the right circumstances, so the Frenchman is worth a wager at a big price after beating Roger Federer here last year from two sets down.

The only other player worth a mention in that quarter is Bernard Tomic, who has that infuriating laid-back style on the court where he looks like he's having a practice match with his mates, but he used it to good effect here last year reaching the last eight.

I'm yet to be convinced by Tomic and I'd be surprised if he made the quarters again at Tsonga's expense, injuries notwithstanding.

The top half is where we find Federer and Novak Djokovic and with the exception of Tomas Berdych, the defending champ's quarter looks weak, with only Philipp Petzschner and Richard Gasquet worth mentioning.

Berdych is my other outsider worth following, as we know he can beat Djokovic and Federer here at Wimbledon and he'll probably have to beat both to make the final for the second time.

It's so hard to tell if the Czech is in the right frame of mind to make a challenge, but we know he's unplayable on his best form, so he has to be worth a wager at around 40.039/1, with Djokovic a little way behind his form of 2011.

I would expect the world number one to probably make the final again, but he's too short at 2.757/4 to bet on, so he's worth opposing with Berdych.

The third quarter is pretty much on a plate for Federer, who has very little that should concern him, with opposition of the mediocrity of Gilles Simon, John Isner, Andreas Seppi, Fernando Verdasco, David Nalbandian and Janko Tipsarevic.

Nalbandian can be classy on his day of course, but one of he and Tipsarevic are going out in the first round and the Argentine hasn't been past the round of 32 at a Slam since the 2007 French Open. Seppi might turn out to be the dark horse in that section.

But Federer should go forward to face Djokovic or Berdych in the last four and I think that's where his tournament will end.

There's little point in me advising the obvious, so my bets will be on the adventurous side as follows:


Back Cilic to win quarter three at 19.018/1
Lay Murray to win quarter three at 2.26/5
Back-to-lay Tsonga at 4443/1
Back-to-lay Berdych at 4039/1

Follow Sean during Wimbledon fortnight on Twitter @seancalvert1

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