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Profit by spotting struggling players
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Simple methods to understand match patterns
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Successful tennis trading is all about spotting key turning points in a match or anticipating a trend that is developing as a contest unfolds.
In this article I will focus on an obvious way to anticipate where a match is heading. It doesn't happen in every match, but when it does, it's a key indicator.
Spotting struggling players
While watching a Tennis match once, I heard a commentator mention that they thought a player was struggling.
If a player is tired or carrying a minor injury, it's obvious that it will affect their performance. This will affect their chance of winning and their odds will react.
I was fascinated to see if I could read a match like this, having the ability to spot when a player was struggling.
Not only did I figure out how to do it, but I also learned that the ability to see that, in many instances, this is within the reach of most traders.
Famous loss for Nadal
During the Australian Open final in 2014 an in-form Rafa Nadal was playing the outsider Stan Wawrinka.
Wawrinka had never won a set, let alone a match, in 12 previous attempts against Nadal. The Swiss was making his Grand Slam final debut against a man in his 19th. To everybody's surprise, Wawrinka stormed to a 5-1 lead and eventually closed out the first set 6-3.
Nadal started the match at odds of 1.21/5 and, after losing that first set, he drifted to 1.491/2. Wawrinka broke early in the second set to record 12 straight points. Nadal briefly left the court to boos from some of the crowd.
When he returned, the Spaniard was unable to do a full serve and Wawrinka picked him off to claim the second set. Nadal drifted out to 11.521/2. In a complete turnaround, Wawrinka was now 1.21/5 for the title.

It was clear that Nadal was really struggling and couldn't hit the ball cleanly, especially when serving.
During the post-match interview, after Wawrinka had won, Nadal indicated that he knew in the warm-up that his back was going to be a problem but because it was the final, he played on regardless.
What we saw during that match was the effect of an injured player, but how could we have picked up on it?
How to recognise a turning point
Tennis is one sport where statistics are extensively used through a game and tournament.
Winning points on serve is a key determinate for winning a match and roughly 65% of points are won on serve, although this varies by player and surface type.
In hindsight, it was obvious that Nadal had been struggling from the start of the 2014 final. But the key here was to look at service speed.
Wawrinka's service speed was averaging similar levels to his run up to the final, but Nadal's service speed was not.
To give you a direct comparison, normally Nadal's average service speed was around 180 kph. When he started serving in 2014 it was only 141kph. That was bad, but it continued to decline and dropped to 125 kph and then 114 kph. He was clearly in trouble.
Being the battler that he is, especially in a Grand Slam final, Nadal soldiered on.

During his break in the second set, he took some painkillers and here is another important lesson. If there is a break in a match, that can also be a key turning point.
When the painkillers kicked in, his service started to improve. You could see this in his service action and the speed jumped back to 174 kph.
Nadal managed to take the third set and his odds moved back into 3.211/5 but his serve was weakening again and eventually Wawrinka closed out the match by winning the fourth set.
Rather than trading based on gut feel, I used a simple method to understand how the match was playing out and that enabled us to get some good entry and exit points.
Similar things can happen when players get other injuries or problems, but obviously they won't directly affect the serve speed. But they would have the same effect on the odds.
Break points mean lay bets
The way to win a tennis match is to serve well. Persistently slower service than normal is typically a strong indicator to get in a lay bet in-play.
Betting odds in the market must reflect the current score, but looking deeper will tell you not just what has happened, but what could be about to happen.
If you watch a match, make sure you check statistics on the official site, in-between games during match.
It could lead to your best bet or trade of the tournament