Olympics Women's Tennis: 10/3 Qinwen Zheng stand out value to win her quarter

• Happy hunting ground for Swiatek

• Value on Qinwen Zheng in 2nd quarter

• American flag bearer can go far

If Iga Swiatek brings her best level it is difficult to imagine anyone stopping her from adding Olympic Gold to her collection of four Grand Slam titles accrued at Roland Garros.

The Polish star romped through the draw at the French Open a month and a half ago to win her third consecutive title in Paris. However, the accolade she covets more than any other is Olympic Gold and there is an argument to be made that it may provide pressure that will weigh her down.

A nation expects

Swiatek's father Tomasz was an Olympic rower competing in the quadruple sculls event at Seoul in 1988. Winning a medal is clearly important to his daughter, who left the courts in floods of tears at the Tokyo games having failed to perform at her best and having expressed a difficulty in meeting her expectations.

At the 2023 United Cup team event in Australia Swiatek was representing Poland and was squashed 6/2 6/2 by Jess Pegula and once again that sent Swiatek into an emotional state.

The combination of expectation and representing her nation is not easy to carry. Swiatek is prone to feeling this kind of pressure but because she is by far and away the best clay courter on tour she rarely experiences it during the high profile clay events.

If the pressure is to arrive for Swiatek it will likely rear its head against an opponent that is able to hurt her with power. On clay there are only a handful of players that can do it and arguably two of the most likely candidates are in her quarter of the draw.

Jelena Ostapenko or Danielle Collins are forecasted to be Swiatek's quarter-final opponent. Both have a track record of beating Swiatek thanks to an ambitious attacking style of play that has overpowered Iga. Any player that lets Swiatek hit her shots is not going to win.

Whilst it is speculative, and although this player is prone to letting you down I think Ostapenko looks a value proposition to win this quarter.

The Latvian is having a great season and is in good form as shown by an impressive Wimbledon run. I thought her level was very high and she was unlucky to run into an in-form Barbora Krejcikova who was able to neutralise Ostapenko's weaponry in the slower conditions that emerged during the second week. Ostapenko is a former French Open champion and looks worth backing to win quarter one at 10/111.00.

Chinese medal hope?

There are high hopes for China's Qinwen Zheng to compete for a medal. The 21 year old was an Australian Open finalist this year and arrives in Paris with strong clay court form having won the title in Palermo last week.

Qinwen has also benefited since the draw was made by the withdrawal of Elena Rybakina through illness who would have been favoured to emerge in this quarter.

Surprisingly this has not made the Chinese player the market favourite to win quarter 2. That honour goes to Naomi Osaka at 13/102.30. This price is based on the Japanese player's impressive performance against Swiatek at the French Open, in which she held a match point but couldn't get over the line.

I feel that this is an optimistic price on Osaka. Yes, that was a performance of note that suggests she has a high upside, she has yet to win anything on clay. What's more she was also the poster girl for the Tokyo Olympics and she didn't handle the pressure well, flopping to Marketa Vondrousova in the third round.

Qinwen also beat Osaka twice in the past few months, so it is clear there is value on her at 10/34.33 to emerge from this quarter if the market suggests that Osaka is the player to beat.

Coco to get through bottom half

The bottom half looks like Coco Gauff's to lose. The only player that Gauff has lost to on her past three visits to Paris has been Swiatek.

The American has made it a final, a quarter-final and a semi-final only to be outdone by her Polish foe. If it hadn't been for Iga I imagine Gauff would be a French Open champion already.

Gauff is for my money clearly the second best clay court player on tour. Her athletic game and strong serving works very well on this surface and she can mask her problematic forehand against most opponents in these conditions.

She has also been honoured as being named the woman that will carry the American flag in the Opening Ceremony alongside basketball legend LeBron James.

There is nobody that Gauff should fear in this half of the draw. She should be able to navigate her way past names like Jasmine Paolini, Barbora Krejcikova, Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari.

Of course Gauff is unlikely to get the better of Swiatek should they meet in the final but if one of her colleagues can do her a favour, she'll be hopeful of her chances.

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