Olympics Women's Tennis Final: Back Qinwen Zheng to win Gold in a competitive decider

• Qinwen Zheng reaching her potential

• Donna Vekic on a hot streak

• 5/23.50 a value bet for possible outcome

In defeating Iga Swiatek, Qinwen Zheng ended her opponent's 25 match and three-year long perfect record at Roland Garros.

It was a coming of age performance for the Chinese player who was obviously destined for great things and it was always a question of 'Qinwen, win when?'

At the Australian Open she had an incredible and unexpected run to the final to provoke a glimpse of what was one day certain to come. However, she benefited from a draw against low ranked opponents and in the final she was outclassed by Aryna Sabalenka.

That match suggested to me that although Qinwen was a step closer and was going to reach the most important finals, she still had work to do. However, it feels like this will be her golden moment.

Qinwen has arrived

When previewing the match against Sabalenka I discovered an important stat - that Qinwen was not only losing to big-four ranked opponents but the margin of defeat was by at least seven games.

Before a ball was hit at this tournament I rated Qinwen highly enough to be capable of having a run and backed her accordingly to win the quarter at 10/34.33. However, as she'd been so far away from the top tier players I couldn't foresee her being the player that would be able to remove Swiatek from the draw.

There was no fortune about her victory over Iga. Qinwen mixed up her game effectively and outplayed the heavily favoured Swiatek, even retrieving a 4/0 double break deficit in set two. Swiatek had no answers to Qinwen's game and it will be interesting to see their future meetings on clay.

Vekic on a hot streak

Opponent Donna Vekic is a different commodity. Whilst Qinwen's rise towards the top was highly predictable, the Croatian's recent results have come about from her maxing out her game.

Vekic is smacking the ball cleanly and confidently and arrives in the final with a series of convincing wins over talented opposition including Bianca Andreescu and Marta Kostyuk. The firepower of Vekic has been decisive and although I think Qinwen has the more complete game and the better temperament that makes her a candidate to win important tournaments, there is no denying that Vekic has a puncher's chance.

Hitting the ball as well as she has been, Vekic has the tools to win this match. Where I doubt her is her emotional and temperamental traits. When confronting the finishing line in close matches against Kostyuk, and Jasmine Paolini in the Wimbledon semi-final, the scoreboard was incredibly tight and she needed multiple opportunities to get over the line. She won one and lost the other.

The nerves will be a factor in what is the biggest match of her career. Vekic has the form to keep this competitive and my pick is for the Croat to win a set, but ultimately I think the superior player will emerge the winner. Back Qinwen Zheng to win and both players to win a set at 5/23.50.

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