Olympics Tennis Day One Tip: Back in-form Borges to win pick-em

• Borges in champion form

• Navone still has much to prove

• Take the in-form player at 9/10

Last week in Bastad Nuno Borges had the best moment of his career when lifting a first career title.

Not only did the Portuguese baseliner tick off a career milestone, he did it in fine style too easily defeating none other than Rafa Nadal in the final.

Borges has a tough first round assignment against one of the form players of 2024, Mariano Navone, but I feel the Argentine's longer term form is being weighed too heavily here and that Borges should be favourite.

Borges big week

After a shambolic grass court campaign in which Borges was easy first round pickings for every opponent lucky enough to encounter a fish out of water, the Portuguese moved back to his favoured clay court conditions to win in Bastad.

I watched every match of that tournament and it was apparent from quite early on that Borges was the class player in the field and that his form would give him a decent chance at winning the title.

Borges was controlled in his play, moving securely and bringing his forehand into play at the correct moments. Whilst other players went about their business by bringing greater risk into their play, everything Borges did was measured and he showed more than one game plan to win points.

The standout win on paper has to be the Nadal match. The Spanish legend was not playing well at all during the week, but his name reputation and his will to win was able to vanquish opponent after opponent until he ran into Borges.

Other players had looked nervous at the opportunity to claim a win over Nadal but Borges was able to overcome those fears. In the first set of their final Borges was struggling to hold serve but he realised the match was on his racket and once he'd calmed down he was a convincing winner.

Too much, too soon for Navone

One of Nadal's beaten opponents last week was Mariano Navone. The Argentine had his chances to win and he should look back with a bit of regret at the missed opportunity.

Navone is a brilliant mover at the back of the court. He has speed and he often has plenty of time to weigh up his next shot. However, Nadal rattled his rhythm by giving him no pace to work with and Navone was spraying shots everywhere to allow Nadal a competitive foothold into the contest.

If you allow Nadal a hint of hope he will take advantage of it.

I feel that performance is a good example of where Navone stands in his career. This season he has had an incredible rise up the rankings having ended 2023 at a world ranking of 126. This year's French Open was remarkable in that it was not only his first Grand Slam, but he was actually seeded as one of the top 32 ranked players.

Navone has risen because of his clay court form in the first months of the season.

Although he only won one challenger title this year in Cagliari he was able to make the final of another challenger event in Buenos Aires, before appearing in the final of main tour events in Rio de Janeiro and Bucharest, as well as a semifinal in Marrakech.

It is clear that Navone is comfortable on clay. However, he's still got much to learn as recent form has shown.

Since the start of May he has won only two matches despite entering eight tournaments, with this week's one sided defeat to Flavio Cobolli in Umag a worrying sign.

He has only played a top 50 opponent eight times this season, and although he possess five wins from those matches it is his lack of experience that is the important statistic to read here.

Borges on the other hand has many more miles on the clock and his game is in a very good place right now as witnessed by his Bastad triumph. It is reward for a player that has been having a strong 2024 campaign, registering a title in Phoenix and fourth round showings at the Australian Open and the prestigious Rome clay court event.

There isn't much to pick between them on any given day and both are usually treated comparably by the markets in most tournaments and at a similar price range.

I believe Borges has not only the tools to decide this match but he has the form and momentum to carry a victory here. At 9/10 I think Borges can get the job done.

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