Olympics Tennis Day 6 Tip: Felix has upset value at 6/4

• Felix in good form

• Ruud took out faded Cerundolo

• 6/42.50 is value for close encounter

Felix Auger-Aliassime has not reached the heights that many dreamed for him when he first emerged on tour.

The Canadian eternally blows hot and cold but when he's good, he's good and he is in the midst of an impressive run of form.

He has to complete a tough assignment in Casper Ruud to compete in a medal match at these Olympics, but I feel he has a better chance than the odds indicate.

Overcoming a 7/0 head to head against Medvedev

Felix has been hitting the ball well this week thrashing Marcos Giron and Maximilian Marterer before he finally got a win over a player that has his number in Daniil Medvedev.

The Russian had previously won all seven of their meetings and it had felt like a mental barrier that Felix simply couldn't cross.

There was one match in particular at the 2022 Australian Open when Felix was in strong form and he led their match by two sets to love before it all fell apart. His defeats to Medvedev since then have been a bit more one-sided and his career has more or less stagnated.

However, this run of form has been the most impressive he has shown arguably in several years. I've watched his performances this week and he is playing confidently.

I don't recall him playing as well as he did against Marterer. He was patient and disciplined in the rallies, building points onto favourable terms before unleashing attempted winners. Marterer tried throwing everything at him but he was completely outclassed by the Canadian.

In this form I think there's value in siding with Felix against plenty of opponents. Casper Ruud is undoubtedly an incredible player but I classify him in a tier not too dissimilar to Auger-Aliassime.

Competitive match-up with Ruud

Norway's Ruud knows what it takes to have a good run at Roland Garros. This quarter-final showing adds to semi-final effort at the French Open this year, and back to back finals in 2022 and 2023.

He is a classy clay operator, playing a serve and forehand style typical of the players that were masters on this surface and that dominated the clay season prior to the Big Three era.

This week he's gone about business as you'd expect, comfortably dispatching Taro Daniel and Andrea Vavassori before comfortably steering his way past Francisco Cerundolo.

However, it should be noted that the Argentine was running on fumes having won a physically draining tournament in Umag that didn't finish until the Olympics tennis tournament had started.

Ruud has his patented formula for these conditions. He will look to get his forehand into play as much as possible. His weight of shot, and the variety of spins that he can generate is highly effective and there's a limited selection of players that can counterstrike him as his Roland Garros record shows.

Despite that Ruud is prone to routinely dropping sets, winning only four of his past twenty matches at this venue in straight sets.

What's more, the Olympics is played over three sets rather than best of five as is the case in Grand Slams. Had such a rule been in place at both this year's and the 2022 French Open then Ruud would have been defeated earlier in the draw having trailed Lorenzo Sonego and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina by two sets to win.

Ruud often needs to go the distance to grind his opponents down and he doesn't have that luxury this time round.

This has always been a competitive match-up and Ruud narrowly leads it four wins to three. On a clay court they are tied at two wins apiece, with Auger-Aliassime actually winning their most recent encounter in Madrid this season.

Auger-Aliassime has not only yet to drop serve in this year's Olympics but he has yet to face even one break point. That underlines just how well he is playing.

The Canadian has the weapons and the form to trouble Ruud and at 6/42.50 I fancy that he gives us a good run for our money.

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