Tennis Betting Tips: Why the clay court game is great for trading on Betfair

Peter Webb
20 April 2023
4:00 min read

Use Peter's guide to see if you can pick a French Open winner

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Peter Webb of Bet Angel has studied clay court tennis in-depth and has discovered that it is perfect for trading on the Betfair Exchange. He explains how you can profit at the French Open and elsewhere...

Peter's guide to trading tennis on the red stuff
Slower surface means more odds swings
French Open is 29 May to 11 June

Tennis markets are some of the most exciting markets to trade. Some players' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is a common theme, making it great for trading.

We are now in the clay court season and, if you plan to trade tennis, this part of the season will present some of the year's best betting opportunities.

Let's explore why it's a good time of year for tennis trading.

Hard, slow and demanding stamina

Clay, hard, and grass courts are the three primary types of tennis court surfaces.

Each has unique characteristics that affect the ball's behaviour and overall gameplay. In turn, this affects how punters should trade the market on Betfair.

Clay courts are made of crushed brick, shale, or stone, and are, rather appropriately, usually red or green.

The ball bounces higher and has a slower pace than on grass courts. This can lead to longer rallies, as players have more time to reach the ball.

Clay courts favour players with good stamina, consistent groundstrokes, and strong defensive skills.

Topspin shots are more effective on clay due to the higher bounce. Significant topspin is one of the main reasons that Rafael Nadal has been so dominant on this surface.

Percentage-wise, big-servers have a slight disadvantage on clay courts because the slower surface reduces the effectiveness of fast, powerful serves.

Andrey Rublev Monte Carlo 2023.jpg

Returners have more time to react, increasing their chances of breaking the server's serve. This effect is present in men's and women's tennis, although men's serves tend to be faster and more powerful, making the difference more pronounced.

What the stats say

In the men's game, points won on return reached around 40% when playing on clay but only 34.7% on grass. Returning a serve on grass is more challenging, as a good server will likely win a point.

For the women's game, clay sees a 46.4% return on serve versus 42% on grass. So there is still a bias, but not so strong.

However, the higher return percentage for women is a significant factor here. This makes it easier for women players to break serve.

When trading tennis, a break of service is precisely what you are looking for, as it will create much more volatile markets, which is what a Betfair trader wants.

So women's tennis is preferred for finding a significant swing in odds during a match.

Looking at the competitiveness of a match is important. I looked at nearly 70,000 to see how often breaks of served occurred.

When we look at uncompetitive games, where the favourite is heavy odds-on to win, they tend to produce fewer breaks of serve, when measured as an average of both players.

Matches where both players are close to odds of 2.01/1, tend to produce the most variable outcomes. Therefore these matches have the highest frequency of breaks of serves.

The type of match can have an impact as well. The movement in odds will be significant if you get a break of serve in a best-of-three-sets match. But best-of-five matches produce less chance of a profit as a break is less critical, and therfore odds will move less.

Know your clays

There can be differences in tour surface types. For example, the clay at Monte Carlo is slow, giving big servers far less advantage.

Madrid plays a little faster, which is evident when you learn that the tournament is played at a much higher altitude.

Taking into account all the factors mentioned above, if you want to profit from trading tennis, a competitive women's match on clay should be your key target.

These matches will see above-average breaks of serve due to the characteristics we have revealed.

In turn, this will often allow you to open a position by laying a player at low odds. This will present you with a good possibility of trading out for a profit, as it's more complicated than average on a clay court to close out a match.

That is why it's peak season for tennis trading.

Bet £5 on tennis accas on the French Open, min odds of 1.5. After the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £5 free bet. Available on days 1-7 of the French Open. T&Cs apply.

Sunday 28 May, 10.00am

Market rules

	Back	Lay
Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Holger Rune
Jannik Sinner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Casper Ruud
Alexander Zverev
Andrey Rublev
Francisco Cerundolo
Dominic Thiem
Taylor Harry Fritz
Karen Khachanov
Lorenzo Musetti
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Borna Coric
Cameron Norrie
Jan-Lennard Struff
Grigor Dimitrov
Botic Van de Zandschulp
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Frances Tiafoe
Hubert Hurkacz
Aslan Karatsev
Alex De Minaur
Nicolas Jarry
Denis Shapovalov
Sebastian Korda
Arthur Fils
Roberto Bautista Agut
Stan Wawrinka
Alexander Shevchenko
Dusan Lajovic
Diego Schwartzman
Gael Monfils
John Isner
Miomir Kecmanovic
Lorenzo Sonego
Daniel Evans
Sebastian Baez
Lloyd George Harris
Tommy Paul
David Goffin
Alexander Bublik
Albert Ramos Vinolas
Pedro Martinez Portero
Alex Molcan
Filip Krajinovic
Ugo Humbert
Ilya Ivashka
Adrian Mannarino
Alexandre Muller
Alexei Popyrin
Arthur Cazaux
Arthur Rinderknech
Ben Shelton
Benjamin Bonzi
Benoit Paire
Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Brandon Nakashima
Christopher Eubanks
Christopher O'Connell
Constant Lestienne
Corentin Moutet
Daniel Altmaier
Daniel Elahi Galan
Emil Ruusuvuori
Federico Coria
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Gregoire Barrere
Guido Pella
Hugo Dellien
Hugo Gaston
Hugo Grenier
J.j. Wolf
Jack Draper
Jason Kubler
Jaume Munar
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Vesely
Jordan Thompson
Juan Pablo Varillas
Laslo Djere
Luca Van Assche
Mackenzie McDonald
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Marco Cecchinato
Marcos Giron
Marton Fucsovics
Max Purcell
Maxime Cressy
Michael Mmoh
Mikael Ymer
Nuno Borges
Oscar Otte
Patrick Kypson
Pedro Cachin
Quentin Halys
Richard Gasquet
Roberto Carballes Baena
Tallon Griekspoor
Taro Daniel
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Thiago Monteiro
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Yibing Wu
Yoshihito Nishioka
Zhizhen Zhang
Sebastian Ofner
Elias Ymer
Flavio Cobolli
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Timofey Skatov
Emilio Nava
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Giulio Zeppieri
Juncheng Shang
Radu Albot
Andrea Vavassori
Hamad Medjedovic
Lucas Pouille
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Dominic Stricker
Fabio Fognini
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Jurij Rodionov
Matteo Arnaldi